08 September 2005

Black Gold

It's very interesting to note here that writers like Kunstler and Pfeiffer have predicted Peak Oil to occur around 2007/08:

CIBC World Markets predicts oil at US$84 a barrel in 2006, on way to $100

11:15 AM EDT Sep 08
TORONTO (CP) - Oil will likely climb to $84 US a barrel next year, eventually rising to $100 US per barrel by the end of 2007, CIBC World Markets predicted Thursday.

The average West Texas Intermediate oil prices will be affected by both supply and demand factors over the next few years, the study by chief economist Jeff Rubin said.

The study, which predicts oil will average $93 US per barrel in 2007, said prices are "expected to reach or exceed $100 US per barrel by the fourth quarter of that year."

"The devastation to both oilfields and oil industry infrastructure from hurricane Katrina will not only impact current oil production but future production as well," CIBC World Markets said in a release.

"The study expects that planned expansion of production in the Gulf of Mexico over the next two years is likely to be halved; cutting off nearly 300,000 barrels per day of potential future supply. The setbacks to planned expansion of Gulf of Mexico capacity comes on the heels of stagnant production in Russia and tapped out capacity in OPEC."

The study noted that world oil demand is less price sensitive than was thought, "requiring larger than originally anticipated price increases to rein in future demand growth." It linked a declining sensitivity in world oil demand to price and to the growing importance of energy consumption in China.

"While the full economic impact of expected oil price increases is difficult to gauge, at a minimum, the economic drag from higher energy prices should quickly cap rising short-term interest rates in both Canada and the Untied States," Rubin said.

"Apart from possibly one more rate hike on either side of the border, we are likely at a cyclical peak in short-term interest rates thanks to soaring oil prices."

CIBC World Markets is the wholesale banking arm of CIBC (TSX:CM) providing credit and capital markets products, investment banking and merchant banking.

© The Canadian Press, 2005

5 comments:

Mrs The Experience said...

Oh why bother with life.

Jeff said...

Remember Y2K? 'member when everybody feared for the year 2000? Well it came and went without any hitch. The Oil crisis will be the same, come and then go, just minor casualties...I saw it in my dream last night.

Reid Dalgleish said...

The coming oil crisis is NOTHING like Y2K. Two completely different situations with different inputs and potential outcomes. Y2K didn't happen specifically because the 'Cassandras' in the early 90s warned about it, people reacted to a very defined problem with a defined deadline with well-defined solutions. The problem with Peak Oil is that nothing is defined -- what to do about it or when it's coming. Because of this, no one will commit to doing anything about it until it's too late...maybe.

Mrs The Experience said...

We should start stockpiling weapons and maple syrup.

The Experience said...

DVD? Where do you put the syrup?