This information is readily available on the internet, in scientific journals, and government reports. I would like to do some comparisons of numbers to ensure neutrality, however for the sake of brevity I'll let you do the comparisons on your own and use the information below as a guide.
There is no argument by anyone that the rate of our GHG emissions is rising, fast. The argument stands on where to best start tackling the issue, thus the question of whether a focus on reducing emissions from the transportation sector is necessarily the most effective way to reduce overall GHG emissions.
Personally I believe that the POTUS (good ol' Shrub) targeted transportation because it is the sector most dependent on foreign sources, thus the one exposing the most vulnerability and threats to our security as the world map continues to destabilize.
We can generate electricity from a variety of different sources that we have a relatively large amount of domestically to consume (which of course, changes rapidly depending on ones usage rate of said sources), however our domestic sources of oil and gas are on the decline for which we will become more dependent on foreign sources for going forward if we continue to rely so heavily on these particular liquid fossil fuels.
I will use Environment Canada data to start...benign enough?
Canada Greenhouse Gas Data
In 2004, Canadians contributed about 758 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2 eq) of GHGs to the atmosphere, an increase of 0.6% over the 754 Mt recorded in the year 2003.1 This is considerably less than the 3.9% increase that occurred between 2002 and 2003. Canada's economic GHG intensity - the amount of GHGs emitted per unit of economic activity, or total GHG emissions divided by gross domestic product (GDP) - was 2.6% lower in 2004 than in 2003.
Between 2003 and 2004, there were increases in some sectors (notably Industrial Processes and Agriculture), but the overall growth was minor due mainly to significantly reduced emissions from electricity production (less coal and more nuclear generation) and, to a lesser extent, a reduced demand for heating fuel because of a warmer winter.
Between 1990 and 2004, Canada's total GHG emissions rose by approximately 27%. This increase in GHG emissions during the 14-year period outpaced increases in population (which totalled 15%) and approximately equalled the increase in energy use (which was 26%). However, the growth in total emissions was well short of the 47% growth in GDP between 1990 and 2004. As a result, economic GHG intensity has decreased by a total of 14% over the period, an average of 1% per year.
In addition:
Approximately 73% of total GHG emissions in 2004 resulted from the combustion of fossil fuels. Another 9% were from fugitive sources, with the result that 82% of emissions were from the Energy Sector.
On an individual GHG basis, CO2 contributed the largest share of 2004 emissions, at 78% (about 593 Mt), while CH4 accounted for 15% (110 Mt). N2O accounted for 6% of the emissions (44 Mt), while PFCs, SF6, and HFCs constituted the remaining 1% (11 Mt).
The greatest contributions to emissions in 2004 were from the Electricity & Fossil Fuel Industries, which accounted for 38% of total national emissions (285 Mt), and the Transportation sector, which contributed 22% (169 Mt). These sectors are also responsible for nearly all of the growth in Canadian emissions since 1990 (Figure 1). This growth is mainly the result of an increase in fossil fuel consumption for electricity generation, a rise in transportation energy consumption, and growth in fossil fuel production (largely for export).
For the Mining and Manufacturing Industries sector, there has been an overall emissions growth of 7.5 Mt between 1990 and 2004. This growth is the net effect of emission increases and decreases of various subsectors. For instance, there has been a progressive replacement of CFCs by HFCs and a growing use of fossil fuels for non-energy purposes, both of which contributed to emission increases. Despite the overall sectoral emission increase, some industries have shown significant emission reductions. Between 1990 and 2004, aluminium producers reduced their PFC emissions using emission control technologies. Also, the installation of an emission abatement system in Canada's only adipic acid plant resulted in considerable decreases in N2O emissions.
Other sectors, such as the Residential, Commercial & Institutional, Agriculture, and Waste sectors, contributed 16% to total emissions growth over the period.
Net emissions in the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Sector amounted to 81 Mt in 2004; note that these emissions are not currently included in the national inventory totals.
FIGURE 1: Canadian GHG Emissions and Removals, 1990, 2003 and 2004
Figure 2 compares the trends in GHG emissions, GDP, and GHG intensity for Canada and the United States between 1990 and 2004. Both countries experienced a reduction in GHG intensity over the period. For example, Canada's GHG emissions per unit of GDP decreased by 13.8%, while the United States registered a 20.1% reduction. It must be noted that a reduction in GHG intensity does not necessarily reflect a reduction in emissions; it can also indicate changes in the structure of the economy. A closer examination of the trends in emissions and GDP for the two countries reveals that Canada's emissions are growing faster and our GDP is growing at a slower pace than those of the United States.FIGURE 2: Trends in GHG Emissions, GDP, and GHG Intensity for Canada and the United States, 1990-2004
Sources:1 Canadian GHG: Environment Canada (2006), National Inventory Report - Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada: 1990-2004.
2 Canadian GDP: Informetrica Limited (2006), Gross Domestic Product (Million 1997 Chained Dollars), January 11, 2006.
3 U.S. GHG: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2006), The U.S. Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2004.
4 U.S. GDP: U.S. Department of Commerce (2006), Real Gross Domestic Product Billions of Chained (2000) Dollars, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Factors that affected Canadian emissions growth included increases in fossil fuel consumption for electricity generation, increased energy consumption in the transportation sector, and growth in fossil fuel production (largely for export).
In fact, growth in oil and gas exports (primarily to the United States) contributed significantly to emissions growth between 1990 and 2004 (Table 2). In this period, net oil exports (exports minus imports) grew by 513% to 1572 petajoules (PJ) (almost 10 times the rate of growth of oil production), while net exports of natural gas increased 138% to 3600 PJ (almost twice the rate of growth of natural gas production). Over the period, the sum total of net oil and gas energy exports increased by 192%. The portion of emissions from all oil and gas production, processing, and transmission activities that is attributable to net exports rose from about 22 Mt in 1990 to 48 Mt in 2004 (a 123% increase).
A closer examination of the trends in emissions and GDP for the two countries reveals that Canada's emissions are growing faster and our GDP is growing at a slower pace than those of the United States.
Next, I will use USG EPA data to continue (which Canada will be very similar to)...still neutral enough?
United States Greenhouse Gas Data
The figure above illustrates the relative contribution of the direct greenhouse gases to total U.S. emissions for the period 1990-2004. The primary greenhouse gas emitted by human activities in the United States was carbon dioxide (CO2), representing approximately 85 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions. The largest source of CO2 was from the combustion of fossil fuels. Methane emissions, which have steadily declined since 1990, resulted primarily from decomposition of wastes in landfills, natural gas systems and activities associated with domestic livestock. Agricultural soil management and mobile source fossil fuel combustion were the major sources of nitrous oxide emissions. The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, which are substitutes for ozone depleting substances, were the primary component of fluorinated gas emissions.To compare and combine emissions of different greenhouse gases into a national total, EPA uses global warming potentials (GWPs). GWPs compare the radiative forcing or ability to trap heat of one metric ton of a greenhouse gas to a metric ton of CO2.
The U.S. greenhouse gas inventory also presents emissions by more commonly used economic categories: agriculture, commercial, electricity generation, industry, residential and transportation. Using this categorization, emissions from electricity generation accounted for the largest portion of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2004. Transportation activities accounted for the second largest portion and emissions from industry comprised the third largest portion. The agriculture, commercial and residential economic sectors, listed in descending order of their contribution, together account for the remaining U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
Electricity, though produced at power plants, is ultimately consumed in the other economic sectors. When emissions from electricity are distributed among these sectors, the industrial sector accounts for the largest share of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Transportation remains the second largest contributor to emissions. Emissions from the residential and commercial sectors increase substantially due to their relatively large share of electricity consumption (e.g., lighting, appliances, etc.), with agriculture consuming little electricity.
Carbon dioxide can be removed from the atmosphere through activities such as planting trees, improving existing forests and soil management. As shown below, total carbon sequestration in the U.S. in 2004 removed approximately 11 percent of total U.S. emissions.
Reference: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2004, USEPA #430-R-06-002
Global Greenhouse Gas Data
Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are affected by the total amount of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere around the world over time. Figure 1 shows a breakdown of global greenhouse gas emissions by each gas.
Figure 2 presents data on the major global sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by country, from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to the present.
Figure 3 provides a projection of future greenhouse gas emissions of developed and developing countries. Total emissions from the developing world are expected to exceed those from the developed world by 2015.
Reference(Figure1): EPA, Methane to Markets Partnership Fact Sheet Brochure.Reference(Figure2): Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Reference(Figure3): (1) SGM Energy Modeling Forum EMF-21 Projections, Energy Journal Special Issue, in press, reference case CO2 projections. (2) Non-CO2 emissions are from EPA's Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases 1990-2020.
And here is the Canadian breakdown of GHG emissions in the transportation sector, specifically:
So, in Canada anyways, the transportation sector (excluding pipelines and industrial off-road emissions) represents one of the largest sources of emissions in Canada, accounting for 22.3% of Canada's total emissions in 2004 (169 Mt). Off-road emissions associated with oil sands mining, forestry, and agriculture are included in the Fossil Fuel Industries and the Mining and Manufacturing Industries sectors.
Emissions increased 31% (40 Mt) between 1990 and 2004. On-road transportation was the largest contributor to emissions in this sector, at 85.9% in 2004. Nearly all emissions growth can be attributed to light-duty gasoline trucks, or LDGTs (these include sport utility vehicles, or SUVs, and minivans), which contributed 55% or 22 Mt of this sector's growth, and heavy-duty diesel vehicles, which accounted for 51% or 20.4 Mt of the growth. The sum is greater than 100%, as emissions decreased for Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles (LDGVs), or cars, Propane & Natural Gas Vehicles, Railways, and Off-Road Gasoline. Figure 3 provides a breakdown of emissions from the different modes of transportation for 2004.
The long-term trend (1990-2004) shows an increase in emissions from LDGTs, while emissions from LDGVs are decreasing. This can be explained by the increase in purchases of LDGTs (SUVs, minivans) instead of cars for personal transportation.
So, even if it may be the most difficult sector to possibly get buy-in from its citizens, the transportation sector is the one seeing unceasing growth rates in the amount of GHGs produced. That, on top of the reliance on foreign energy sources may be the main reasons why the government leaders are 'picking' on this sector first. There are many experts arguing that this is futile and that regulation should be preferred over legislation, but as I've said before, the automotive industry is the last group you will ever see to push for mileage, fuel-efficiency and emissions standards on their own. Historically, they have complied to government intervention only after years of litigation and political maneouvers. If the market is to dictate the trend for emissions standards, it will only come if the public changes their tastes in vehicles - permanently - from huge, powerful guzzlers to small, efficient sippers, and also where they decide to buy their consumables and food from. We really have to reconsider our 3,000 mile salads and onions imported from China as well.
2 comments:
Well, first of all I don't see any pie here at all! I was hoping for lemon meringue or apple.
There are three pies here. You just can't see the pies because of all the bars.
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