Delusions of grandeur?

US dreams of five-fold jump in oilsands output

Talks between the US and Canadian governments to quintuple oilsands production came as no surprise to corporate Calgary. The big question is how a lofty goal of five million barrels per day could be accomplished given Alberta's already overheated market, industry observers said Thursday. The CBC on Wednesday reported details of meetings between Canadian and American industry representatives and their government counterparts that took place in Houston shortly after Stephen Harper's Conservatives came to power last January. According to the network, the Americans were keen to increase the pace of oilsands development to more than five million barrels per day. Days after the meeting, on Jan. 31, US President George Bush gave his state of the union address where he said: "America is addicted to oil." But Greg Stringham, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers' vp of markets and fiscal policy, said CAPP representatives who were at the meeting described it as a "blue-sky" session of regular consultations between Canadian, Mexican and American officials, adding that the five million bpd number actually came from the Alberta government's technology roadmap target for 2030. By contrast, CAPP's "base-case" scenario sees a range of 3.3 million to four million bpd by 2020, a mark Stringham conceded could be out of reach given the cost pressures and shortages of labour and materials in Alberta. Bush will be giving this year's state of the union address next Wednesday and Stringham doesn't expect energy issues will get the same play as last year. "With oil prices coming down, it doesn't have as much ring with the public."

Nonetheless, Bob Ebel, who heads up the energy chair of Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said energy security remains "a huge issue" south of the border. Craig Stevens, a spokesman with the US Department of Energy, noted that Samuel

Bodman was the first American energy secretary to visit the oilsands when he came through Calgary last summer, underscoring the importance of the energy relationship between the two countries. "Energy security is one of the issues that affects every American," he said. "We import more oil from Canada than anyone else, we're the logical market given our proximity." Environmentalists were outraged. "This move severely impacts Canada's boreal forests and water supplies and further damages Canada's already soiled international reputation on climate change," said Dan Woynillowicz, a senior policy analyst with the Pembina Institute. Meanwhile, Premier Ed Stelmach told a Calgary Chamber of Commerce gathering he's confident Alberta will be able to maintain environmental and public safety standards in the face of rapid oilsands expansion.
(Calgary Herald 070119)

Better get those nuclear power plants fired up along the shores of Lake Athabasca, since there's no way we'll be able to handle the processing of five million bpd on current natural gas and water feedstocks. Unless the idea is that the entire western half of North America goes cold and thirsty as a sacrifice for our free-wheeling, free-spending lifestyles. It wouldn't be a surprise that the powers that be would rather let people freeze than consider restricting the number of cars on the road, for starters.