IEA probes fears that oil will run out
Inquiry will examine 'narrow margin' in 2012
Richard Wachman The Observer, Sunday May 25 2008
The International Energy Agency has ordered an inquiry into whether the world could run out of oil, The Observer has learnt. It will consider whether fears about global shortages are real.
Observers say that the IEA, which provides authoritative research to OECD countries, is concerned that the supply of oil could fail to keep up with demand driven by the fast-industrialising economies of China and India. The investigation comes at a time of mounting concern that the sky-high price of oil could derail the global economy and plunge the world into recession. Oil hit $135 a barrel last week, the highest price on record, forcing airlines to cut back on flights to save fuel and pushing up the cost of living around the globe.
Lawrence Eagles, head of oil markets research at the IEA, said the situation was complex but added: 'Our findings will form part of short- and long-term forecasts that we intend to publish in July and November. Up to now we have believed that supply can cope with demand. One caveat is that we don't know for certain whether estimates of reserves in countries such as Saudi Arabia are entirely accurate.'
John Waterlow, analyst at oil research consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said: 'Many oil-producing countries are closed, secretive societies where it can be difficult to pinpoint the level of provable reserves.'
Analysts disagree about cause of the jump in oil prices - some have blamed commodity speculators but others point to surging international demand from Asia and South America as factors that have pushed the price higher.
IEA researchers have warned that even if there is enough oil under the ground, which is probable, supply difficulties could emerge because national oil companies and Western multinationals have failed to invest sufficiently in the equipment and pipelines needed to extract oil and convey it to consumers.
The IEA is worried about an extremely narrow capacity margin by 2012, when demand is expected to have reached 95 million barrels a day. At that point spare capacity could be at just a million barrels a day - which may not be enough to make good any sudden interruption of supply from volatile countries such as Nigeria or Venezuela - or Iraq, which is now estimated to have overtaken Saudi Arabia as the largest holder of reserves.
27 May 2008
16 May 2008
The Forgotten
Woman's dead body lies in flat for 35 years
ZAGREB, Croatia (AP) -- Governments have changed. War erupted and ended. Neighbors had children, and then grandchildren. But Hedviga Golik never left her tiny apartment in Croatia's capital -- until her mummified body was carried out this week, 35 years after she died.
Police said Friday that no one ever reported Golik missing and no one has come to claim her body.
Residents of her loft building in downtown Zagreb had broken into Golik's flat after deciding that the apartment should belong to them, and not to her. Startled by the remains in bed, they called police.
Forensics experts said Golik likely died in 1973, about the time a neighbor last saw her. Expert Davor Strinovic said she seemed to have died of natural causes, but "it's almost impossible to say for certain" after so much time.
Some of Golik's neighbors claimed she had talked about going abroad.
Experts said her windows had been open, likely diminishing the smell. It remained unclear who -- if anyone -- was paying her bills and who exactly owned the apartment. In the 1970s, when Golik died, apartments were state-owned.
Neighbors now argue the apartment should be divided among the remaining tenants.
The discovery of Golik's body on Tuesday prompted media debates on how it is possible for a woman to die so long ago without anyone noticing. One local journalist said it showed people were becoming more alienated.
"My dear neighbors! Please keep on being curious and a bit tiresome, as you have been so far," Merita Arslani wrote in the Jutarnji list daily.
I found this very sad. No one notices your disappearance...ever. How could one person become so forgotten? I wonder how this woman cut all her ties to the government, community and family to completely that no one noticed anything? It seems to be human nature to leave something -- anything -- of your existence on this planet to those behind you. As you get older, I think the opportunities for this for many people become more and more rare, why these stories of bodies being found months or years are almost always those of older people.
Of course, 35 years is a bit of an anomaly, and could probably only happen in a region of the world with lots of turmoil, post-Communist Eastern Europe in this case, where a lot of people and records of their existence undoubtedly fall through the cracks.
ZAGREB, Croatia (AP) -- Governments have changed. War erupted and ended. Neighbors had children, and then grandchildren. But Hedviga Golik never left her tiny apartment in Croatia's capital -- until her mummified body was carried out this week, 35 years after she died.
Police said Friday that no one ever reported Golik missing and no one has come to claim her body.
Residents of her loft building in downtown Zagreb had broken into Golik's flat after deciding that the apartment should belong to them, and not to her. Startled by the remains in bed, they called police.
Forensics experts said Golik likely died in 1973, about the time a neighbor last saw her. Expert Davor Strinovic said she seemed to have died of natural causes, but "it's almost impossible to say for certain" after so much time.
Some of Golik's neighbors claimed she had talked about going abroad.
Experts said her windows had been open, likely diminishing the smell. It remained unclear who -- if anyone -- was paying her bills and who exactly owned the apartment. In the 1970s, when Golik died, apartments were state-owned.
Neighbors now argue the apartment should be divided among the remaining tenants.
The discovery of Golik's body on Tuesday prompted media debates on how it is possible for a woman to die so long ago without anyone noticing. One local journalist said it showed people were becoming more alienated.
"My dear neighbors! Please keep on being curious and a bit tiresome, as you have been so far," Merita Arslani wrote in the Jutarnji list daily.
I found this very sad. No one notices your disappearance...ever. How could one person become so forgotten? I wonder how this woman cut all her ties to the government, community and family to completely that no one noticed anything? It seems to be human nature to leave something -- anything -- of your existence on this planet to those behind you. As you get older, I think the opportunities for this for many people become more and more rare, why these stories of bodies being found months or years are almost always those of older people.
Of course, 35 years is a bit of an anomaly, and could probably only happen in a region of the world with lots of turmoil, post-Communist Eastern Europe in this case, where a lot of people and records of their existence undoubtedly fall through the cracks.
13 May 2008
12 May 2008
Steep learning curve
The Sun visits Burnaby Velodrome ahead of its Maydays Track Challenge
Ian Walker, Vancouver Sun
Published: Saturday, May 10, 2008
Before there was NASCAR, there was velodrome track cycling.
Stop laughing.
Track racing was one of the most popular spectator sports at the turn of the 20th century. Crowds regularly packed indoor and outdoor stadiums to watch a blur of competitors zoom around in circles on banked tracks.
In its heyday, from 1890 to 1920, the best bike racers made more money than baseball stars of the same era.
Now cut out the snickering.
Auto racing overshadowed velodrome racing by the mid-1930s, as cycling fans flocked to stock-car racing.
By the time William France Sr. founded NASCAR in 1948, many of the hundreds of bicycle racing tracks in North America were torn down or left in disrepair.
Not too much has changed since. There are now fewer than 30 velodromes on this side of the ocean, with Vancouver home to just one of three indoor track racing facilities on the continent.
And just barely. It was only five years ago that the City of Burnaby saved the historic track from being sold for firewood.
"For a while there it was pretty much year to year whether we'd still be here," says Jeff Ain, an instructor with the Burnaby Velodrome Club's Learn to Ride program.
"At least now, our existence is a bit more stable. Our numbers are growing; it's just a matter of awareness."
For the uninitiated, the Burnaby Velodrome is a giant wood salad bowl housed in a mini BC Place -- complete with concrete foundation, bubble dome and echo -- just off Barnett Highway.
Once through the airlock entrance, the steady hum of rubber tires on wood is the only evidence anyone is in the building.
It's probably for the best that walls block the view of the 200-metre track. The oval's 47-degree banked corners have been known to buckle the knees of even the most steely-nerved street racers upon first glimpse.
"It can be pretty intimidating, especially in the corners," says Glenn Barr, a BVC board member and organizer of this weekend's Maydays Track Challenge.
"We see a lot of jaws drop as people walk under the track into the infield and see it for the first time."
The equipment isn't any less comforting -- or comfortable, for that matter. Track bikes consist of a frame, two wheels, pedals, a crank, handlebars, a rather small seat and nothing else.
That's it. No mirror, no brakes, no little bell to warn others ... oh yeah, and no coasting.
The rear gear is fixed to the rear wheel, so when the wheels are moving the crank is moving. Riders slow down by easing up on their pedalling and applying back-pressure to the pedals like in spinning classes at the gym.
The key to staying upright is to pedal at a steady clip and let the laws of physics take care of the rest.
Something called superelevation allows riders to keep their bikes relatively perpendicular to the surface while riding at speed.
When travelling through the turns at racing speed, the banking attempts to match the natural lean of a bicycle moving through that curve.
Therefore, the centripetal acceleration of the combined inertia of bicycle and rider moving in the curved path balances the tangential acceleration pulling them outwards.
In other words: "As long as you're going 30 km/h you'll be all right and won't slide off the track," promises Ain, who has beginners follow closely behind him in order to build up their confidence as they make their way up the banks.
"This weekend, guys will reach in excess of 70 km/h in some events."
The Maydays Track Challenge runs through Sunday and serves to kick off the summer season. The annual event will showcase some of the best racing talent from across the country and will serve as a prelude to the 2008 Canadian Track Championships in August.
In Keirin races, all the riders on the track jockey for position behind an electric bike before sprinting madly to the line on the last lap. The Madison -- named after Madison Square Garden in New York -- is considered to be the ultimate event in bicycle track racing because of its incredible combined demands of speed, endurance, teamwork and tactics.
"Track cycling is the most exciting type of racing to watch as a spectator," says Barr. "Everything unfolds right in front of you."
Not to mention, you don't leave smelling like gasoline.
iwalker@png.canwest.com
DID YOU KNOW?
- The Burnaby Velodrome opened in 1997 as part of the Harry Jerome sports complex and replaced the China Creek Velodrome, built for the 1954 British Empire Games and demolished in 1980.
- The track is 200 metres long, six metres wide and 47 degrees in the steepest corners.
- The BVC has more than 25 rental bikes of various sizes that are available on a first-come, first-serve basis.
- 2008 Olympic track cyclists Zach Bell and Gina Grain train at the Burnaby Velodrome.
Ian Walker, Vancouver Sun
Ian Walker, Vancouver Sun
Published: Saturday, May 10, 2008
Before there was NASCAR, there was velodrome track cycling.
Stop laughing.
Track racing was one of the most popular spectator sports at the turn of the 20th century. Crowds regularly packed indoor and outdoor stadiums to watch a blur of competitors zoom around in circles on banked tracks.
In its heyday, from 1890 to 1920, the best bike racers made more money than baseball stars of the same era.
Now cut out the snickering.
Auto racing overshadowed velodrome racing by the mid-1930s, as cycling fans flocked to stock-car racing.
By the time William France Sr. founded NASCAR in 1948, many of the hundreds of bicycle racing tracks in North America were torn down or left in disrepair.
Not too much has changed since. There are now fewer than 30 velodromes on this side of the ocean, with Vancouver home to just one of three indoor track racing facilities on the continent.
And just barely. It was only five years ago that the City of Burnaby saved the historic track from being sold for firewood.
"For a while there it was pretty much year to year whether we'd still be here," says Jeff Ain, an instructor with the Burnaby Velodrome Club's Learn to Ride program.
"At least now, our existence is a bit more stable. Our numbers are growing; it's just a matter of awareness."
For the uninitiated, the Burnaby Velodrome is a giant wood salad bowl housed in a mini BC Place -- complete with concrete foundation, bubble dome and echo -- just off Barnett Highway.
Once through the airlock entrance, the steady hum of rubber tires on wood is the only evidence anyone is in the building.
It's probably for the best that walls block the view of the 200-metre track. The oval's 47-degree banked corners have been known to buckle the knees of even the most steely-nerved street racers upon first glimpse.
"It can be pretty intimidating, especially in the corners," says Glenn Barr, a BVC board member and organizer of this weekend's Maydays Track Challenge.
"We see a lot of jaws drop as people walk under the track into the infield and see it for the first time."
The equipment isn't any less comforting -- or comfortable, for that matter. Track bikes consist of a frame, two wheels, pedals, a crank, handlebars, a rather small seat and nothing else.
That's it. No mirror, no brakes, no little bell to warn others ... oh yeah, and no coasting.
The rear gear is fixed to the rear wheel, so when the wheels are moving the crank is moving. Riders slow down by easing up on their pedalling and applying back-pressure to the pedals like in spinning classes at the gym.
The key to staying upright is to pedal at a steady clip and let the laws of physics take care of the rest.
Something called superelevation allows riders to keep their bikes relatively perpendicular to the surface while riding at speed.
When travelling through the turns at racing speed, the banking attempts to match the natural lean of a bicycle moving through that curve.
Therefore, the centripetal acceleration of the combined inertia of bicycle and rider moving in the curved path balances the tangential acceleration pulling them outwards.
In other words: "As long as you're going 30 km/h you'll be all right and won't slide off the track," promises Ain, who has beginners follow closely behind him in order to build up their confidence as they make their way up the banks.
"This weekend, guys will reach in excess of 70 km/h in some events."
The Maydays Track Challenge runs through Sunday and serves to kick off the summer season. The annual event will showcase some of the best racing talent from across the country and will serve as a prelude to the 2008 Canadian Track Championships in August.
In Keirin races, all the riders on the track jockey for position behind an electric bike before sprinting madly to the line on the last lap. The Madison -- named after Madison Square Garden in New York -- is considered to be the ultimate event in bicycle track racing because of its incredible combined demands of speed, endurance, teamwork and tactics.
"Track cycling is the most exciting type of racing to watch as a spectator," says Barr. "Everything unfolds right in front of you."
Not to mention, you don't leave smelling like gasoline.
iwalker@png.canwest.com
DID YOU KNOW?
- The Burnaby Velodrome opened in 1997 as part of the Harry Jerome sports complex and replaced the China Creek Velodrome, built for the 1954 British Empire Games and demolished in 1980.
- The track is 200 metres long, six metres wide and 47 degrees in the steepest corners.
- The BVC has more than 25 rental bikes of various sizes that are available on a first-come, first-serve basis.
- 2008 Olympic track cyclists Zach Bell and Gina Grain train at the Burnaby Velodrome.
Ian Walker, Vancouver Sun
07 May 2008
Yikes - superspikes
Analyst sees oil surging to US$200
Oil could shoot to US$200 within the next two years as part of a "super-spike," investment bank Goldman Sachs said Tuesday, as crude cruised to a record price north of $122 per barrel and at least one Calgary station briefly advertised regular gasoline at a record CAD$1.29 per litre. It's an oil forecast that's gaining in popularity - and one prospect analysts and economists agreed would lead to a global slowdown, a deep US recession and higher prices for consumers in Canada on everything from gas to food. "We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent," Goldman analyst Arjun Murti said in a research note. "The possibility of US$150 to $200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six to 24 months, though predicting the ultimate peak in oil prices . . . remains a major uncertainty." Despite high prices, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach said in Calgary he wasn't keen on the idea of reducing fuel taxes. "All the money that comes from fuel tax goes directly to infrastructure, to highways. We don't use that money for any other operational cost of government," he said. "It is by far the smallest fuel tax in the country."
Doug Porter, deputy chief economist for BMO Capital Markets, said Tuesday $200 oil would probably cause a global economic slowdown that would push the weak US economy into a deep recession and sideswipe Canada as well. "Up to this point, the global economy has held up remarkably well in the face of oil prices going from $20 to over $120 but I think that added increase (to $200) over such a short period of time would prove to be a tipping point for global growth, especially in North America." Consumers would see higher energy prices and higher inflation, Porter said, but some prices would fall simply because energy costs would deplete family budgets to the point that there would be less demand for discretionary items such as clothing, electronics and appliances. Alberta, thanks to oil and natural gas royalties, would be insulated from the slowdown, but the Canadian dollar would likely follow the oil price higher, leading to increased pressure on Canadian firms that sell goods in US dollars, as well as the farming, lumber and travel industries.
(Calgary Herald, Globe and Mail, National Post 080507)
Things are looking worse and worse everyday. What will be the trigger to set everyone panicking for the financial exits?
Gas prices to cut US oil demand
Higher gasoline prices and a slowing economy will cut into US oil demand through the summer driving season much more than previously thought, the US government's top energy forecasting agency said Tuesday. "Based on projections of weak economic growth and record high crude oil and product prices, (petroleum) consumption is projected to decline," the Energy Information Administration said in its latest monthly forecast. Thanks to rising crude oil costs, US drivers will pay an average US$3.66 a gallon for gasoline this summer, up 12 cents from earlier estimates, the US Energy Department's analytical arm said. Pump prices are expected to peak at $3.73 a gallon in June, 11 cents more than previously projected, the agency said. Gasoline prices will be higher due to expensive crude oil, which the EIA said it now expected will average $110 a barrel this year, about $9 more than the agency forecast last month. High fuel costs, along with a sputtering economy, will take an even bigger bite out of gasoline consumption, which was already forecast to decline from last summer's levels. "The gasoline (situation) we're facing here in the US is not something we've seen in 20 years, where we have these high prices on top of a weak economy," said EIA analyst Tancred Lidderdale. "Both are unquestionably taking their toll." The EIA said it expected total petroleum demand, which includes gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel, in the current quarter to be 90,000 barrels a day less than last month's forecast and down 170,000 barrels a day compared with the second quarter of last year. For all of 2008, demand will decline by 190,000 barrels a day, 90,000 barrels per day more than the agency said in last month's forecast.
(Calgary Herald 080507)
Everything on this bloody continent is going to be affected by this.
Indonesia may quit OPEC as nation's output dwindles
Indonesia said on Tuesday it may quit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as its declining crude oil output prevents the country from meeting its OPEC quota and has reduced its influence in the cartel. Indonesia is Asia-Pacific's only member of OPEC, but its crude oil output has fallen in recent years due to aging wells, a lack of investment, and the absence of any major oil finds. "We are studying whether we have to stay in OPEC or leave. We are now a crude oil importer and our production has declined to below one million barrels," Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said, referring to the country's daily output. Indonesia produced 977,000 barrels per day of oil and condensate in April, an official at the country's energy watchdog said last week. Of this, 859,000 bpd were crude and 118,000 bpd were condensate. Indonesia's status as a net oil importer has prompted many analysts to question its continued membership of OPEC, especially at a time when the cartel has been expanding. Indonesia has aired the possibility of leaving OPEC before. In 2005 a group of advisers to the government had recommended the country leave the group partly because of the financial costs of membership. Kurtubi, an energy analyst at the Centre for Petroleum and Energy Economics Studies in Jakarta, said Indonesia should have left the group because of its status as a net oil importer, which is different from OPEC's interests. "Our interests now are different. As an importer, we want oil prices to come down as high oil prices put pressure on our budget. But exporters want a reasonable or even high price since it is their main source of revenue," Kurtubi said. Indonesia is likely to remain a net importer of oil, and the decline in production has forced it to turn to other energy sources. It has huge natural gas and coal reserves, but has been unable to fully exploit those due to a lack of investment and poor infrastructure.
In other news, OPEC countries cut oil production 1% in April. Nigerian output dropped to the lowest level this decade, a Bloomberg News survey showed. OPEC pumped an average 32.105 million bpd last month, which is down 320,000 barrels from March, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Production by the 12 members with quotas - all except Iraq - fell by 305,000 barrels to 29.74 million barrels a day. Nigerian production dropped 160,000 barrels to an average 1.88 million barrels a day last month. This is the biggest decline of any member, the survey showed. It was the lowest output for the African country since August 1999.
(Calgary Herald 080507)
Why are all the fringe suppliers suddenly out of the game? Who's been monitoring activity? Better yet, who's been asleep at the wheel?
Oil could shoot to US$200 within the next two years as part of a "super-spike," investment bank Goldman Sachs said Tuesday, as crude cruised to a record price north of $122 per barrel and at least one Calgary station briefly advertised regular gasoline at a record CAD$1.29 per litre. It's an oil forecast that's gaining in popularity - and one prospect analysts and economists agreed would lead to a global slowdown, a deep US recession and higher prices for consumers in Canada on everything from gas to food. "We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent," Goldman analyst Arjun Murti said in a research note. "The possibility of US$150 to $200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six to 24 months, though predicting the ultimate peak in oil prices . . . remains a major uncertainty." Despite high prices, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach said in Calgary he wasn't keen on the idea of reducing fuel taxes. "All the money that comes from fuel tax goes directly to infrastructure, to highways. We don't use that money for any other operational cost of government," he said. "It is by far the smallest fuel tax in the country."
Doug Porter, deputy chief economist for BMO Capital Markets, said Tuesday $200 oil would probably cause a global economic slowdown that would push the weak US economy into a deep recession and sideswipe Canada as well. "Up to this point, the global economy has held up remarkably well in the face of oil prices going from $20 to over $120 but I think that added increase (to $200) over such a short period of time would prove to be a tipping point for global growth, especially in North America." Consumers would see higher energy prices and higher inflation, Porter said, but some prices would fall simply because energy costs would deplete family budgets to the point that there would be less demand for discretionary items such as clothing, electronics and appliances. Alberta, thanks to oil and natural gas royalties, would be insulated from the slowdown, but the Canadian dollar would likely follow the oil price higher, leading to increased pressure on Canadian firms that sell goods in US dollars, as well as the farming, lumber and travel industries.
(Calgary Herald, Globe and Mail, National Post 080507)
Things are looking worse and worse everyday. What will be the trigger to set everyone panicking for the financial exits?
Gas prices to cut US oil demand
Higher gasoline prices and a slowing economy will cut into US oil demand through the summer driving season much more than previously thought, the US government's top energy forecasting agency said Tuesday. "Based on projections of weak economic growth and record high crude oil and product prices, (petroleum) consumption is projected to decline," the Energy Information Administration said in its latest monthly forecast. Thanks to rising crude oil costs, US drivers will pay an average US$3.66 a gallon for gasoline this summer, up 12 cents from earlier estimates, the US Energy Department's analytical arm said. Pump prices are expected to peak at $3.73 a gallon in June, 11 cents more than previously projected, the agency said. Gasoline prices will be higher due to expensive crude oil, which the EIA said it now expected will average $110 a barrel this year, about $9 more than the agency forecast last month. High fuel costs, along with a sputtering economy, will take an even bigger bite out of gasoline consumption, which was already forecast to decline from last summer's levels. "The gasoline (situation) we're facing here in the US is not something we've seen in 20 years, where we have these high prices on top of a weak economy," said EIA analyst Tancred Lidderdale. "Both are unquestionably taking their toll." The EIA said it expected total petroleum demand, which includes gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel, in the current quarter to be 90,000 barrels a day less than last month's forecast and down 170,000 barrels a day compared with the second quarter of last year. For all of 2008, demand will decline by 190,000 barrels a day, 90,000 barrels per day more than the agency said in last month's forecast.
(Calgary Herald 080507)
Everything on this bloody continent is going to be affected by this.
Indonesia may quit OPEC as nation's output dwindles
Indonesia said on Tuesday it may quit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as its declining crude oil output prevents the country from meeting its OPEC quota and has reduced its influence in the cartel. Indonesia is Asia-Pacific's only member of OPEC, but its crude oil output has fallen in recent years due to aging wells, a lack of investment, and the absence of any major oil finds. "We are studying whether we have to stay in OPEC or leave. We are now a crude oil importer and our production has declined to below one million barrels," Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said, referring to the country's daily output. Indonesia produced 977,000 barrels per day of oil and condensate in April, an official at the country's energy watchdog said last week. Of this, 859,000 bpd were crude and 118,000 bpd were condensate. Indonesia's status as a net oil importer has prompted many analysts to question its continued membership of OPEC, especially at a time when the cartel has been expanding. Indonesia has aired the possibility of leaving OPEC before. In 2005 a group of advisers to the government had recommended the country leave the group partly because of the financial costs of membership. Kurtubi, an energy analyst at the Centre for Petroleum and Energy Economics Studies in Jakarta, said Indonesia should have left the group because of its status as a net oil importer, which is different from OPEC's interests. "Our interests now are different. As an importer, we want oil prices to come down as high oil prices put pressure on our budget. But exporters want a reasonable or even high price since it is their main source of revenue," Kurtubi said. Indonesia is likely to remain a net importer of oil, and the decline in production has forced it to turn to other energy sources. It has huge natural gas and coal reserves, but has been unable to fully exploit those due to a lack of investment and poor infrastructure.
In other news, OPEC countries cut oil production 1% in April. Nigerian output dropped to the lowest level this decade, a Bloomberg News survey showed. OPEC pumped an average 32.105 million bpd last month, which is down 320,000 barrels from March, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Production by the 12 members with quotas - all except Iraq - fell by 305,000 barrels to 29.74 million barrels a day. Nigerian production dropped 160,000 barrels to an average 1.88 million barrels a day last month. This is the biggest decline of any member, the survey showed. It was the lowest output for the African country since August 1999.
(Calgary Herald 080507)
Why are all the fringe suppliers suddenly out of the game? Who's been monitoring activity? Better yet, who's been asleep at the wheel?
06 May 2008
Good for your Memri
Electronics' 'missing link' found
BBC News, May 1, 2008
Details of an entirely new kind of electronic device, which could make chips smaller and far more efficient, have been outlined by scientists.
The new components, described by scientists at Hewlett-Packard, are known as "memristors".
The devices were proposed 40 years ago but have only recently been fabricated, the team wrote in the journal Nature.
They have already been used to build novel transistors - tiny switches that are the building blocks of all chips.
"Now we have this type of device we have a broader palette with which to paint our circuits," Professor Stan Williams, one of the team, told the BBC last year.
Total recall
Memristors were first proposed in 1971 by Professor Leon Chua, a scientist at the University of California, Berkeley.
They are the "fourth" basic building block of circuits, after capacitors, resistors and inductors.
"I never thought I'd live long enough to see this happen," Professor Chua told the Associated Press.
"I'm thrilled because it's almost like vindication. Something I did is not just in my imagination, it's fundamental."
The memristors are so called because they have the ability to "remember" the amount of charge that has flowed through them after the power has been switched off.
This could allow researchers to build new kinds of computer memory that would would not require powering up.
Today, most PCs use dynamic random access memory (DRAM) which loses data when the power is turned off.
But a computer built with memristors could allow PCs that start up instantly, laptops that retain sessions after the battery dies, or mobile phones that can last for weeks without needing a charge.
"If you turn on your computer it will come up instantly where it was when you turned it off," Professor Williams told Reuters.
"That is a very interesting potential application, and one that is very realistic."
'Industry anathema'
Professor Williams and his team have already shown that by putting two memristors together - a configuration called a crossbar latch - it could do the job of a transistor.
"A crossbar latch has the type of functionality you want from a transistor but it's working with very different physics," he explained.
Intriguingly, these devices can also be made much smaller than a conventional transistor.
"And as they get smaller they get better," he said.
As a result, the new devices could play a key part in the future of the electronics industry, as it relentlessly pursues Moore's Law.
This industry axiom, first stated by Gordon Moore, co-founder of chip-maker Intel, states that the number of transistors it is possible to squeeze in to a chip for a fixed cost doubles every two years.
However, according to some, it may be some time before the device is widely used.
"Even to consider an alternative to the transistor is anathema to many device engineers, and the memristor concept will have a steep slope to climb towards acceptance," wrote Drs James Tour and Tao Heare of Rice University, Houston, in an accompanying article in Nature.
They said that some in the electronics industry would only accept the use of memristors "after the demonstration of a well-functioning, large-scale array of these densely packed devices".
"When that happens, the race towards smaller devices will proceed at full steam."
BBC News, May 1, 2008
Details of an entirely new kind of electronic device, which could make chips smaller and far more efficient, have been outlined by scientists.
The new components, described by scientists at Hewlett-Packard, are known as "memristors".
The devices were proposed 40 years ago but have only recently been fabricated, the team wrote in the journal Nature.
They have already been used to build novel transistors - tiny switches that are the building blocks of all chips.
"Now we have this type of device we have a broader palette with which to paint our circuits," Professor Stan Williams, one of the team, told the BBC last year.
Total recall
Memristors were first proposed in 1971 by Professor Leon Chua, a scientist at the University of California, Berkeley.
They are the "fourth" basic building block of circuits, after capacitors, resistors and inductors.
"I never thought I'd live long enough to see this happen," Professor Chua told the Associated Press.
"I'm thrilled because it's almost like vindication. Something I did is not just in my imagination, it's fundamental."
The memristors are so called because they have the ability to "remember" the amount of charge that has flowed through them after the power has been switched off.
This could allow researchers to build new kinds of computer memory that would would not require powering up.
Today, most PCs use dynamic random access memory (DRAM) which loses data when the power is turned off.
But a computer built with memristors could allow PCs that start up instantly, laptops that retain sessions after the battery dies, or mobile phones that can last for weeks without needing a charge.
"If you turn on your computer it will come up instantly where it was when you turned it off," Professor Williams told Reuters.
"That is a very interesting potential application, and one that is very realistic."
'Industry anathema'
Professor Williams and his team have already shown that by putting two memristors together - a configuration called a crossbar latch - it could do the job of a transistor.
"A crossbar latch has the type of functionality you want from a transistor but it's working with very different physics," he explained.
Intriguingly, these devices can also be made much smaller than a conventional transistor.
"And as they get smaller they get better," he said.
As a result, the new devices could play a key part in the future of the electronics industry, as it relentlessly pursues Moore's Law.
This industry axiom, first stated by Gordon Moore, co-founder of chip-maker Intel, states that the number of transistors it is possible to squeeze in to a chip for a fixed cost doubles every two years.
However, according to some, it may be some time before the device is widely used.
"Even to consider an alternative to the transistor is anathema to many device engineers, and the memristor concept will have a steep slope to climb towards acceptance," wrote Drs James Tour and Tao Heare of Rice University, Houston, in an accompanying article in Nature.
They said that some in the electronics industry would only accept the use of memristors "after the demonstration of a well-functioning, large-scale array of these densely packed devices".
"When that happens, the race towards smaller devices will proceed at full steam."
05 May 2008
When the Marketing Dept. is asleep at the wheel
The media afterwards had these headlines:
"Spirit Airlines keeps it classy with their M.I.L.F. sale!"
01 May 2008
Oil in the Sands?
Pricier oilfields inevitable
Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and the rest of the oil industry may face higher costs to exploit Canada's oilsands because of efforts to rein in climate change. A Canadian mandate to bury carbon dioxide emitted during the process of extracting the oil may add between $2 and $13 a barrel to production costs, according to the Pembina Institute, an Alberta-based environmental group. Mining crude from the area now costs around $60 a barrel. The additional costs are likely to feed through to consumers, leading to higher energy bills and contributing to inflation. Canada's increasing costs "are important in how the market looks to the world," said Michael Wittner, Societe Generale's head of oil research in London. "One way or another, it will push up prices for Canadian oilsands," he said. The European Union, Canada, Norway and Australia are among nations setting rules to force industries that use or produce energy to store carbon dioxide underground, instead of venting it into the atmosphere. "It is not only about oil prices -- you have to take a long-term view on CO2 regulation, royalties and taxation, and then see how unique your technology is," Jeroen van der Veer, ceo of Shell, told reporters while attending the International Energy Forum in Rome on Wednesday. "We hope to produce there for decades," he added in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
(Calgary Herald 080501)
Oilsands for energy 'bizarre': GM vp
Once described by Time magazine as "Canada's greatest buried treasure," Alberta's oilsands and the industry surrounding it should be reexamined because it is a "bizarre" source of energy, one of General Motors' top global executives says. Larry Burns, vp of research and development and strategic planning at GM, said if political leaders are going to re-evaluate whether it makes sense to encourage Canadian farmers to grow crops for biofuels such as ethanol, they should apply the same rigour in analyzing other energy sources. "I think you have to ask the same question, 'Does it make sense for Alberta to be creating an oilsands industry?' " Burns said in an interview at a downtown Toronto hotel yesterday. "I think it's a pretty bizarre way to get gasoline to a corner station. It's an awful lot of capital and an awful lot of work to pull it off." Burns, a 56-year-old engineer who is leading GM's efforts to develop an electric car called the Volt and several parallel projects for vehicles powered by sources other than petroleum, has visited Alberta's oilsands. He said he was struck by the sheer scale of operations there. Burns, in the Toronto area to address a conference of auto-supplier executives, said his industry has to wean itself off a near-complete dependence on gasoline. He said he agreed with the basic argument made last week by Jeff Rubin, CIBC's chief economist, that demand for gasoline from such emerging nations as China and India will put a strain on oil supplies in years ahead. Rubin stunned Canadians when he forecast that gasoline prices will soar to $2.25 a litre by 2012.
(National Post 080501)
Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and the rest of the oil industry may face higher costs to exploit Canada's oilsands because of efforts to rein in climate change. A Canadian mandate to bury carbon dioxide emitted during the process of extracting the oil may add between $2 and $13 a barrel to production costs, according to the Pembina Institute, an Alberta-based environmental group. Mining crude from the area now costs around $60 a barrel. The additional costs are likely to feed through to consumers, leading to higher energy bills and contributing to inflation. Canada's increasing costs "are important in how the market looks to the world," said Michael Wittner, Societe Generale's head of oil research in London. "One way or another, it will push up prices for Canadian oilsands," he said. The European Union, Canada, Norway and Australia are among nations setting rules to force industries that use or produce energy to store carbon dioxide underground, instead of venting it into the atmosphere. "It is not only about oil prices -- you have to take a long-term view on CO2 regulation, royalties and taxation, and then see how unique your technology is," Jeroen van der Veer, ceo of Shell, told reporters while attending the International Energy Forum in Rome on Wednesday. "We hope to produce there for decades," he added in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
(Calgary Herald 080501)
Oilsands for energy 'bizarre': GM vp
Once described by Time magazine as "Canada's greatest buried treasure," Alberta's oilsands and the industry surrounding it should be reexamined because it is a "bizarre" source of energy, one of General Motors' top global executives says. Larry Burns, vp of research and development and strategic planning at GM, said if political leaders are going to re-evaluate whether it makes sense to encourage Canadian farmers to grow crops for biofuels such as ethanol, they should apply the same rigour in analyzing other energy sources. "I think you have to ask the same question, 'Does it make sense for Alberta to be creating an oilsands industry?' " Burns said in an interview at a downtown Toronto hotel yesterday. "I think it's a pretty bizarre way to get gasoline to a corner station. It's an awful lot of capital and an awful lot of work to pull it off." Burns, a 56-year-old engineer who is leading GM's efforts to develop an electric car called the Volt and several parallel projects for vehicles powered by sources other than petroleum, has visited Alberta's oilsands. He said he was struck by the sheer scale of operations there. Burns, in the Toronto area to address a conference of auto-supplier executives, said his industry has to wean itself off a near-complete dependence on gasoline. He said he agreed with the basic argument made last week by Jeff Rubin, CIBC's chief economist, that demand for gasoline from such emerging nations as China and India will put a strain on oil supplies in years ahead. Rubin stunned Canadians when he forecast that gasoline prices will soar to $2.25 a litre by 2012.
(National Post 080501)
25 April 2008
Black Gold, indeed
Crude forecast to reach US$225
Jeff Rubin, the ever-bullish oil forecaster and chief economist at CIBC World Markets, can't keep pace with crude's meteoric rise. Four months after predicting world oil prices will soar to US$150 a barrel by 2012, Rubin adjusted his outlook much higher Thursday - a day crude prices declined more than $2 a barrel as investors bolted from commodities - in a report that stands to drive North American bicycle sales through the roof. Rubin now says oil prices will average $150 in 2010 and an unfathomable $225 in 2012, with Canadian gasoline prices topping CAD$1.40 a litre this summer but skyrocketing all the way to $2.25 by 2012. CIBC's chief strategist has plenty of critics, but twice this decade he accurately read the tea leaves on oil's march past US$80 and $100. In January, the bank's investment arm studied the world's 200 largest new oil projects, including those in the Alberta oilsands, and concluded output from many will be slowed in the next four years by protracted delays and cost overruns, meaning many world supply outlooks are overly optimistic. The basis for Rubin's argument this time? In a report titled The Age of Scarcity, he said world crude oil production has not increased in two and a half years, but rather the supply increases reported by the likes of the Paris-based International Energy Agency have come from natural gas liquids. The trend will largely hold over the next four years and based on CIBC's assessment of proposed global oil projects now in the queue, roughly 50% of the increase in actual world petroleum production will come from NGLs, "leaving only small marginal gains" of real crude supply. "(The trend) is fine if you need to refill your lighter, but not so great if your gas tank runs dry," reads the report, which also says US gasoline prices will hit $7 a gallon ($1.85 a litre) by 2012 and notes that 90% of every new barrel of oil produced in the world today goes to transport fuels.
The report predicts growth in the sale of new vehicles like the $2,500 Tata and Chery models now being sold in emerging economies such as India, China and Russia means millions of new households will "suddenly have straws to start sucking at the world's rapidly shrinking oil reserves." It also says oil's continued rise and higher pump prices will force North American drivers off the road, and US oil consumption will fall by two million barrels a day as a result over the next five years. In an interview from Toronto, Rubin said a scenario of sky-high gasoline prices and a Canadian dollar continuing to rise against the US dollar will spell virtual doom for Ontario's auto sector. "Not only are you facing a shrinking market because you are not selling in China, India and Russia, but you are probably producing from a currency that is going to rise steadily against the US dollar," he said. Rubin said Alberta's oilsands will continue to grow in importance; Canada will become the provider of 30% of US oil needs, up from around 18% today.
Frank Atkins, an economist at the University of Calgary, who two years ago worked as a consultant to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Rubin's outlook makes sense on several fronts but contends Rubin is also selling a low-probability scenario that stands to benefit CIBC World Markets. He said Rubin does not give enough credit on the supply side of the equation to high crude oil prices pushing exploration and development of oil reserves that would not be pursued otherwise. "What we know and understand as economists are the fundamentals and you would be hard-pressed to find anyone right now to tell you the fundamentals say we should be at $116 a barrel," Atkins said. "I myself believe the pressure on oil should be downward but when it happens is anyone's guess. Likely when the US economy stops slipping, the US dollar finds its ground and people stop taking their money and buying oil futures as a safe haven."
(Calgary Herald, National Post 080425)
Well, Mr. Atkins, when have the economists been accurate a predicting future trends anyways? I've argued this with many people more versed in economics than me. They claim that theory trends acceptably well to reality, however I always argue that, firstly, there is never any fudge factor for the irrationality of human behavior, ever - that supply and demand elasticities simply follow predictable lines, especially in the short term is a fallacy. The market is as driven by psychology and sociology as it is by economics, therefore anything they predict ends up looking like a bunch of bunk. Economists are best explaining in hindsight why something went the way they did than being predictive. Secondly, economists have a vested interest in avoiding discreditation and maintaining status quo, therefore they continue to model in a theoretical world of infinite resource availability despite the obvious fact that we're bumping against many ceilings on many fronts due to our profligrate consumption model, and - the elephant in the room - the fact that there are way too many of us on a planet of finite sustainability.
Jeff Rubin, the ever-bullish oil forecaster and chief economist at CIBC World Markets, can't keep pace with crude's meteoric rise. Four months after predicting world oil prices will soar to US$150 a barrel by 2012, Rubin adjusted his outlook much higher Thursday - a day crude prices declined more than $2 a barrel as investors bolted from commodities - in a report that stands to drive North American bicycle sales through the roof. Rubin now says oil prices will average $150 in 2010 and an unfathomable $225 in 2012, with Canadian gasoline prices topping CAD$1.40 a litre this summer but skyrocketing all the way to $2.25 by 2012. CIBC's chief strategist has plenty of critics, but twice this decade he accurately read the tea leaves on oil's march past US$80 and $100. In January, the bank's investment arm studied the world's 200 largest new oil projects, including those in the Alberta oilsands, and concluded output from many will be slowed in the next four years by protracted delays and cost overruns, meaning many world supply outlooks are overly optimistic. The basis for Rubin's argument this time? In a report titled The Age of Scarcity, he said world crude oil production has not increased in two and a half years, but rather the supply increases reported by the likes of the Paris-based International Energy Agency have come from natural gas liquids. The trend will largely hold over the next four years and based on CIBC's assessment of proposed global oil projects now in the queue, roughly 50% of the increase in actual world petroleum production will come from NGLs, "leaving only small marginal gains" of real crude supply. "(The trend) is fine if you need to refill your lighter, but not so great if your gas tank runs dry," reads the report, which also says US gasoline prices will hit $7 a gallon ($1.85 a litre) by 2012 and notes that 90% of every new barrel of oil produced in the world today goes to transport fuels.
The report predicts growth in the sale of new vehicles like the $2,500 Tata and Chery models now being sold in emerging economies such as India, China and Russia means millions of new households will "suddenly have straws to start sucking at the world's rapidly shrinking oil reserves." It also says oil's continued rise and higher pump prices will force North American drivers off the road, and US oil consumption will fall by two million barrels a day as a result over the next five years. In an interview from Toronto, Rubin said a scenario of sky-high gasoline prices and a Canadian dollar continuing to rise against the US dollar will spell virtual doom for Ontario's auto sector. "Not only are you facing a shrinking market because you are not selling in China, India and Russia, but you are probably producing from a currency that is going to rise steadily against the US dollar," he said. Rubin said Alberta's oilsands will continue to grow in importance; Canada will become the provider of 30% of US oil needs, up from around 18% today.
Frank Atkins, an economist at the University of Calgary, who two years ago worked as a consultant to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Rubin's outlook makes sense on several fronts but contends Rubin is also selling a low-probability scenario that stands to benefit CIBC World Markets. He said Rubin does not give enough credit on the supply side of the equation to high crude oil prices pushing exploration and development of oil reserves that would not be pursued otherwise. "What we know and understand as economists are the fundamentals and you would be hard-pressed to find anyone right now to tell you the fundamentals say we should be at $116 a barrel," Atkins said. "I myself believe the pressure on oil should be downward but when it happens is anyone's guess. Likely when the US economy stops slipping, the US dollar finds its ground and people stop taking their money and buying oil futures as a safe haven."
(Calgary Herald, National Post 080425)
Well, Mr. Atkins, when have the economists been accurate a predicting future trends anyways? I've argued this with many people more versed in economics than me. They claim that theory trends acceptably well to reality, however I always argue that, firstly, there is never any fudge factor for the irrationality of human behavior, ever - that supply and demand elasticities simply follow predictable lines, especially in the short term is a fallacy. The market is as driven by psychology and sociology as it is by economics, therefore anything they predict ends up looking like a bunch of bunk. Economists are best explaining in hindsight why something went the way they did than being predictive. Secondly, economists have a vested interest in avoiding discreditation and maintaining status quo, therefore they continue to model in a theoretical world of infinite resource availability despite the obvious fact that we're bumping against many ceilings on many fronts due to our profligrate consumption model, and - the elephant in the room - the fact that there are way too many of us on a planet of finite sustainability.
23 April 2008
Umm...good luck with that
OPEC plans to increase its production
Wed, April 23, 2008
By AP
ROME -- OPEC plans to boost its oil production target capacity by five million barrels a day by 2012, the organization's secretary-general said yesterday.
Abdalla Salem el-Badri said on the sidelines of an energy forum that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are planning to spend US$160 billion during the next four years to boost production capacity.
OPEC crude oil production is expected to average 32.3 million barrels a day during the first quarter of this year, according to the most recent forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
El-Badri also said supply and demand issues were being discussed at the forum, but that he didn't expect any agreement on whether prices are too high or too low.
Oil prices rose to all-time highs above US$118 a barrel yesterday on concerns over supplies from some key producers.
A U.S. energy official appeared to indicate that OPEC should consider increasing production.
"Oil prices are clearly too high," Acting Deputy Secretary of Energy Jeffrey Kupfer told reporters at the forum.
Asked if OPEC should boost production, Kupfer replied that the group "should take a look at ensuring sufficient supply in the market. Market fundamentals are tight and we do think it's important to keep the market well-supplied."
Producing countries "should take a look at how prices have reacted. The fundamentals are driving the price," Kupfer added.
El-Badri, however, blamed a weak dollar and speculators for soaring oil prices, which are taking a heavy toll on economies worldwide. He said OPEC members were investing to increase both production and refining capacity.
"Right now, we have 120 projects worth $160 billion just to increase capacity by five million to 2012," he said, referring to production.
El-Badri also said OPEC members plan to invest about US$50 billion to boost refining capacity by about three million barrels a day.
Oil prices are clearly too high.
IF (and that's still a big IF) Ghawar is in fact on plateau or starting a decline, no amount of money Aramco throws at remedial/tertiary production or bringing other insignificant fields online is going to get Saudi Arabia producing any more oil than it is now. What about the other OPEC members? I guess we'll see.
Wed, April 23, 2008
By AP
ROME -- OPEC plans to boost its oil production target capacity by five million barrels a day by 2012, the organization's secretary-general said yesterday.
Abdalla Salem el-Badri said on the sidelines of an energy forum that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are planning to spend US$160 billion during the next four years to boost production capacity.
OPEC crude oil production is expected to average 32.3 million barrels a day during the first quarter of this year, according to the most recent forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
El-Badri also said supply and demand issues were being discussed at the forum, but that he didn't expect any agreement on whether prices are too high or too low.
Oil prices rose to all-time highs above US$118 a barrel yesterday on concerns over supplies from some key producers.
A U.S. energy official appeared to indicate that OPEC should consider increasing production.
"Oil prices are clearly too high," Acting Deputy Secretary of Energy Jeffrey Kupfer told reporters at the forum.
Asked if OPEC should boost production, Kupfer replied that the group "should take a look at ensuring sufficient supply in the market. Market fundamentals are tight and we do think it's important to keep the market well-supplied."
Producing countries "should take a look at how prices have reacted. The fundamentals are driving the price," Kupfer added.
El-Badri, however, blamed a weak dollar and speculators for soaring oil prices, which are taking a heavy toll on economies worldwide. He said OPEC members were investing to increase both production and refining capacity.
"Right now, we have 120 projects worth $160 billion just to increase capacity by five million to 2012," he said, referring to production.
El-Badri also said OPEC members plan to invest about US$50 billion to boost refining capacity by about three million barrels a day.
Oil prices are clearly too high.
IF (and that's still a big IF) Ghawar is in fact on plateau or starting a decline, no amount of money Aramco throws at remedial/tertiary production or bringing other insignificant fields online is going to get Saudi Arabia producing any more oil than it is now. What about the other OPEC members? I guess we'll see.
Man, we suck
Canadians third highest per capita polluters
Individual Canadians remain the third-highest per capita polluters in the world, according to new figures released by Statistics Canada on Tuesday. Each Canadian produces an average of 23 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per year, trailing Americans who produce an average of 24.4 tonnes of emissions per year and Australians, who produce an average of 27.7 tonnes of emissions per year. While some developing countries, such as India and China, are among the biggest polluters overall, the per capita emissions of those countries are up to 20 times less than those in Canada. The Statistics Canada publication, Human Activity and the Environment, also notes that developed countries such as the UK, France and Germany have per capita emissions that are about half those of Canada, which are growing faster than any other industrialized nation. “The largest source of this growth was the production of fossil fuels, including coal, crude oil and natural gas, for export,” reads the Statistics Canada, released to coincide with Earth Day. “In both 1990 and 2003, the production of these fuels for export resulted in more GHG emissions than the production of any other exported commodity. Over the period, as worldwide demand for fuels surged, GHG emissions from the production of exported fuels.”
The new Statistics Canada publication also noted that the country is also feeling serious impacts of global warming on its territory, such as new insect infestations and melting glaciers. “Climate change is predicted to affect all Canadians to a greater or lesser extent as a result of its impact on their environment, health and economy,” said the report. “Climate changes are expected to vary regionally. While it is not possible to predict changes with certainty, there is a very high degree of agreement among scientists that changes are already occurring and that further changes will occur.”
(CanWest News Service 080422)
Individual Canadians remain the third-highest per capita polluters in the world, according to new figures released by Statistics Canada on Tuesday. Each Canadian produces an average of 23 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per year, trailing Americans who produce an average of 24.4 tonnes of emissions per year and Australians, who produce an average of 27.7 tonnes of emissions per year. While some developing countries, such as India and China, are among the biggest polluters overall, the per capita emissions of those countries are up to 20 times less than those in Canada. The Statistics Canada publication, Human Activity and the Environment, also notes that developed countries such as the UK, France and Germany have per capita emissions that are about half those of Canada, which are growing faster than any other industrialized nation. “The largest source of this growth was the production of fossil fuels, including coal, crude oil and natural gas, for export,” reads the Statistics Canada, released to coincide with Earth Day. “In both 1990 and 2003, the production of these fuels for export resulted in more GHG emissions than the production of any other exported commodity. Over the period, as worldwide demand for fuels surged, GHG emissions from the production of exported fuels.”
The new Statistics Canada publication also noted that the country is also feeling serious impacts of global warming on its territory, such as new insect infestations and melting glaciers. “Climate change is predicted to affect all Canadians to a greater or lesser extent as a result of its impact on their environment, health and economy,” said the report. “Climate changes are expected to vary regionally. While it is not possible to predict changes with certainty, there is a very high degree of agreement among scientists that changes are already occurring and that further changes will occur.”
(CanWest News Service 080422)
17 April 2008
NOT the case in Calgary
Against the grain
Amid a deepening global food crisis, the cost of food for Canadian consumers has done something unusual: gone down. Households across the country are enjoying the benefits of food deflation. Food from grocery stores was 0.6% cheaper in February than a year ago – a stark divergence from the US, where food prices are rising at 4% a year, and China, where they soared 21% in the first quarter. Canada's stronger dollar is playing a role in keeping some food prices down for consumers, especially imported fruits and vegetables, analysts say. But the surging loonie doesn't explain everything. A closer examination shows food commodity prices are actually rising in Canada – they're just not being passed on to consumers at the supermarket.
The Bank of Canada's commodity index shows food prices at the raw materials level have soared more than 50% in the past year. The index is in US dollars, but even after converting to Canada's currency, food commodity prices have risen 28%. Consumers are benefiting from trench warfare between grocery stores, said CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld, who has dissected the food chain to determine how consumer prices are declining while raw material prices are soaring. Lower food prices in Canada have been driven by discounter Wal-Mart Canada, which introduced its Supercentres with full grocery aisles in late 2006. Supermarket leader Loblaw Cos. has taken on Wal-Mart by lowering its prices, forcing rivals to follow suit. The retailers are all pressing suppliers to keep their wholesale prices down. But the efforts by duelling supermarkets to keep a lid on prices don't tell the whole story, Shenfeld said. “It's not just at the retail level,” he said. “It's further back.” Price controls at the wholesale level imposed by marketing boards, including the dairy and egg boards, are playing a role, he said. Dairy price controls in particular help to explain the food pricing differences with the US, he said.
Canada's prices may be kept low because the country is producing so much of its own food – possibly too much, said Bank of Nova Scotia senior economist Adrienne Warren. Pork and beef prices are stable or falling because there's currently an overcapacity in Canada, leading to the recent government announcement of assistance to farmers who cull livestock. For now, the benefits of low food inflation spread beyond Canadians buying groceries. Low inflation means the Bank of Canada has free reign to cut interest rates and bolster economic growth, while the US Federal Reserve is constantly worried about cutting rates too far and igniting further inflation. But it can't last, Shenfeld said. “A price war can't go on forever without decimating profits,” he noted. And eventually, the marketing boards will begin passing higher production prices along to consumers. As for the effect of the climbing Canadian dollar, few analysts expect the loonie to continue its flight, and so the inflation-dampening benefits of a strengthening currency will diminish. “Canada will start to feel the pain from global food and energy prices in 2009,” Shenfeld predicted.
(Globe and Mail 080417)
Amid a deepening global food crisis, the cost of food for Canadian consumers has done something unusual: gone down. Households across the country are enjoying the benefits of food deflation. Food from grocery stores was 0.6% cheaper in February than a year ago – a stark divergence from the US, where food prices are rising at 4% a year, and China, where they soared 21% in the first quarter. Canada's stronger dollar is playing a role in keeping some food prices down for consumers, especially imported fruits and vegetables, analysts say. But the surging loonie doesn't explain everything. A closer examination shows food commodity prices are actually rising in Canada – they're just not being passed on to consumers at the supermarket.
The Bank of Canada's commodity index shows food prices at the raw materials level have soared more than 50% in the past year. The index is in US dollars, but even after converting to Canada's currency, food commodity prices have risen 28%. Consumers are benefiting from trench warfare between grocery stores, said CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld, who has dissected the food chain to determine how consumer prices are declining while raw material prices are soaring. Lower food prices in Canada have been driven by discounter Wal-Mart Canada, which introduced its Supercentres with full grocery aisles in late 2006. Supermarket leader Loblaw Cos. has taken on Wal-Mart by lowering its prices, forcing rivals to follow suit. The retailers are all pressing suppliers to keep their wholesale prices down. But the efforts by duelling supermarkets to keep a lid on prices don't tell the whole story, Shenfeld said. “It's not just at the retail level,” he said. “It's further back.” Price controls at the wholesale level imposed by marketing boards, including the dairy and egg boards, are playing a role, he said. Dairy price controls in particular help to explain the food pricing differences with the US, he said.
Canada's prices may be kept low because the country is producing so much of its own food – possibly too much, said Bank of Nova Scotia senior economist Adrienne Warren. Pork and beef prices are stable or falling because there's currently an overcapacity in Canada, leading to the recent government announcement of assistance to farmers who cull livestock. For now, the benefits of low food inflation spread beyond Canadians buying groceries. Low inflation means the Bank of Canada has free reign to cut interest rates and bolster economic growth, while the US Federal Reserve is constantly worried about cutting rates too far and igniting further inflation. But it can't last, Shenfeld said. “A price war can't go on forever without decimating profits,” he noted. And eventually, the marketing boards will begin passing higher production prices along to consumers. As for the effect of the climbing Canadian dollar, few analysts expect the loonie to continue its flight, and so the inflation-dampening benefits of a strengthening currency will diminish. “Canada will start to feel the pain from global food and energy prices in 2009,” Shenfeld predicted.
(Globe and Mail 080417)
The New and the Old
Breakthrough may yield potential energy source
A Mackenzie Delta drilling rig has become the site of a breakthrough that could revolutionize the world's energy supply. For the first time, Canadian and Japanese researchers produced a stream of natural gas from icelike gas hydrates that dwarf all known fossil fuel deposits. "We were able to sustain flow," said Scott Dallimore, the Geological Survey of Canada researcher in charge of the Mallik drilling program. A hydrate is created when a molecule of gas is trapped by high pressures and low temperatures inside a cage of icy water molecules. Heat or "unsqueeze" the hydrate and gas is released, producing 164 times the energy of the same amount of natural gas. While hydrate fields are found under the coastal waters of every continent, releasing that energy consistently and predictably, however, has been the problem. Using heat works, but requires too much energy. Researchers have also been trying to release the methane by reducing the pressure on it. The Mallik team is the first to use that method to get a steady, consistent flow.
(Toronto Star 080417)
Why don't we just burn every little bit of hydrocarbon we can get our dirty little monkey hands on? I'm sure it won't have any bad consequences!
Oil prices extend record run to US$115
Oil prices streaked into record territory for the second straight day Wednesday, boosted by a decline in US energy reserves and as the weakening dollar drew investments in commodities. New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in May, crossed US$115 a barrel for the first time on its way to an intraday record high of $115.07. It settled up $1.14 at a record close of $114.93. The price reflected the markets worry over tight supplies. The weekly report from the US Department of Energy showed that US energy stockpiles tumbled in the week ending April 11. US crude inventories slumped by 2.3 million barrels last week compared with analysts' consensus forecast for a drop of 1.8 million. US crude stocks now stand at 313.7 million barrels, in the lower half of the average range for this time of year, the department said. Oil futures also gained support after the dollar plunged to an all-time low against the euro. The European single currency rocketed to a record high $1.5979 after official data showed annual eurozone inflation at an all-time peak, paring the possibility of a European Central Bank interest rate cut. Inflation in the 15 nations sharing the euro jumped to an annual rate of 3.6% in March. The weak US unit encourages demand for dollar-priced goods like crude, which become cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies.
(Calgary Herald 080417)
Ottawa urged to consider gas hike
Automakers are calling on Ottawa to look at raising the price of gasoline as a way to cut emissions. The request is contained in a brief submitted to Transport Canada in March as part of the federal government's consultations on proposed national fuel-consumption rules for motor vehicles. It comes as Canadian drivers face near-record prices at the pumps and oil and gasoline futures trade at levels never before seen. "While not advocating for an increase in the cost of fuel, this option must be considered as part of the government's comprehensive cost-benefit analysis to effectively reduce [greenhouse gas] emissions at the lowest possible economic cost," says the position paper, prepared jointly by the Association of International Automobile Manufacturers of Canada and the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association. The trade groups together represent all the major auto-makers selling and making vehicles in Canada, including General Motors, Chrysler, Toyota and Honda. In its submission, the industry groups argue that Canada's auto industry is prepared to accept more stringent mandatory fuel-economy standards for new vehicles. It wants Canada and the US to work toward one continent-wide standard, based on the new fleet-wide average mileage target of 35 miles-per-gallon (6.72 litres per 100 km) by 2020 enacted by US lawmakers last December. But the groups argue that regulations that address only technology are "not the most efficient approach" to reducing energy consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions. "A comprehensive plan is needed," their brief states, one that includes other measures such as boosting driver awareness. "Increased fuel efficiency alone will not achieve the objectives unless it is part of a truly effective plan to reduce GHG emissions." Ottawa is expected to have final regulations on vehicle fuel economy ready by the end of the year.
(National Post 080417)
As stated before, the only way to elicit widespread behavioral change is through fundamentals. In capitalist society, that fundamental is the pocketbook. Anything voluntary won't cut it for the monkeys with laser capabilities.
A Mackenzie Delta drilling rig has become the site of a breakthrough that could revolutionize the world's energy supply. For the first time, Canadian and Japanese researchers produced a stream of natural gas from icelike gas hydrates that dwarf all known fossil fuel deposits. "We were able to sustain flow," said Scott Dallimore, the Geological Survey of Canada researcher in charge of the Mallik drilling program. A hydrate is created when a molecule of gas is trapped by high pressures and low temperatures inside a cage of icy water molecules. Heat or "unsqueeze" the hydrate and gas is released, producing 164 times the energy of the same amount of natural gas. While hydrate fields are found under the coastal waters of every continent, releasing that energy consistently and predictably, however, has been the problem. Using heat works, but requires too much energy. Researchers have also been trying to release the methane by reducing the pressure on it. The Mallik team is the first to use that method to get a steady, consistent flow.
(Toronto Star 080417)
Why don't we just burn every little bit of hydrocarbon we can get our dirty little monkey hands on? I'm sure it won't have any bad consequences!
Oil prices extend record run to US$115
Oil prices streaked into record territory for the second straight day Wednesday, boosted by a decline in US energy reserves and as the weakening dollar drew investments in commodities. New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in May, crossed US$115 a barrel for the first time on its way to an intraday record high of $115.07. It settled up $1.14 at a record close of $114.93. The price reflected the markets worry over tight supplies. The weekly report from the US Department of Energy showed that US energy stockpiles tumbled in the week ending April 11. US crude inventories slumped by 2.3 million barrels last week compared with analysts' consensus forecast for a drop of 1.8 million. US crude stocks now stand at 313.7 million barrels, in the lower half of the average range for this time of year, the department said. Oil futures also gained support after the dollar plunged to an all-time low against the euro. The European single currency rocketed to a record high $1.5979 after official data showed annual eurozone inflation at an all-time peak, paring the possibility of a European Central Bank interest rate cut. Inflation in the 15 nations sharing the euro jumped to an annual rate of 3.6% in March. The weak US unit encourages demand for dollar-priced goods like crude, which become cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies.
(Calgary Herald 080417)
Ottawa urged to consider gas hike
Automakers are calling on Ottawa to look at raising the price of gasoline as a way to cut emissions. The request is contained in a brief submitted to Transport Canada in March as part of the federal government's consultations on proposed national fuel-consumption rules for motor vehicles. It comes as Canadian drivers face near-record prices at the pumps and oil and gasoline futures trade at levels never before seen. "While not advocating for an increase in the cost of fuel, this option must be considered as part of the government's comprehensive cost-benefit analysis to effectively reduce [greenhouse gas] emissions at the lowest possible economic cost," says the position paper, prepared jointly by the Association of International Automobile Manufacturers of Canada and the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association. The trade groups together represent all the major auto-makers selling and making vehicles in Canada, including General Motors, Chrysler, Toyota and Honda. In its submission, the industry groups argue that Canada's auto industry is prepared to accept more stringent mandatory fuel-economy standards for new vehicles. It wants Canada and the US to work toward one continent-wide standard, based on the new fleet-wide average mileage target of 35 miles-per-gallon (6.72 litres per 100 km) by 2020 enacted by US lawmakers last December. But the groups argue that regulations that address only technology are "not the most efficient approach" to reducing energy consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions. "A comprehensive plan is needed," their brief states, one that includes other measures such as boosting driver awareness. "Increased fuel efficiency alone will not achieve the objectives unless it is part of a truly effective plan to reduce GHG emissions." Ottawa is expected to have final regulations on vehicle fuel economy ready by the end of the year.
(National Post 080417)
As stated before, the only way to elicit widespread behavioral change is through fundamentals. In capitalist society, that fundamental is the pocketbook. Anything voluntary won't cut it for the monkeys with laser capabilities.
16 April 2008
Got peak?
Oil's record run past US$114 raises questions of a peak
World oil prices leaped to an all-time high above US$114 per barrel in after-hours trading Tuesday, but analysts disagreed on whether the highly sought-after commodity will continue its amazing run through 2008. Two internationally respected energy market experts in Calgary for an oil conference this week agreed oil could continue to rise in the short-term, but the threatened recession in the US makes the long-term picture bleak. "We could see oil prices peaking as early as the start of the summer. We could see it in the second half of this year," Julian Lee, London-based senior energy analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies, told the Herald. However, he also predicted oil prices will fall, perhaps dramatically, if the US slips into a recession, an event that would cause a global slowdown. Lee expects oil to peak at about $120. Adam Sieminski, Washington-based chief energy economist for Deutsche Bank, said US demand for gasoline is flat and may be shrinking, as is the economy in general. Deutsche Bank is forecasting $97 to $98 per barrel as an average oil price this year and $102 to $103 in 2009. In sharp contrast, Calgary analyst Peter Linder, president of DeltaOne Capital Partners, said the oil rally will shrug off US economic problems. "That's what everybody's looking at, but there's a world outside the US," he said. "I think there's a 50-50 chance we'll reach $125 by Labour Day," Linder predicted. He said oil prices above $100 US will be the norm for the next 10 to 20 years.
West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery closed up $2.03, or 1.82%, at $113.79 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was driven by a combination of supply issues, rising diesel demand in China and persistent dollar weakness. The high price of oil means opportunity for Alberta according to Bruce Rigal., Deutsche Bank's coo of global banking. Rigal, who is a graduate of the University of Alberta and is now based in London, was in Edmonton on Monday, delivering the Princeton Developments distinguished lecture in finance at the University of Alberta. Having witnessed first-hand the growing economies in China and India, Rigal sees no respite from high oil prices. From his perspective, the growing middle classes in both countries will continue to fuel demand for oil and underpin the current pricing environment. He also folded Russia into his analysis, having spent part of his investment banking career at Deutsche Bank doing business there. The future bodes well for Alberta, says Rigal, because of the oilsands, but the province must capture more of its wealth -- one day, he said, the resource will run out. He suggested that one of the ways for Alberta to make the most of the energy boom is to use the Heritage Savings Trust Fund as one of the key vehicles to secure Alberta's future.
In other oil news, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to maintain that factors such as the weakness of the US dollar, speculative trading and political tension are lifting prices, not a lack of oil. In it latest Monthly Oil Market Report OPEC stated, "The fundamental picture in the second quarter of 2008 appears to be in line with the typical seasonal pattern for this time of year. Current OPEC production . . . will be sufficient to both meet demand growth and contribute to further stock builds."
(Calgary Herald 080416)
No surprises here.
World oil prices leaped to an all-time high above US$114 per barrel in after-hours trading Tuesday, but analysts disagreed on whether the highly sought-after commodity will continue its amazing run through 2008. Two internationally respected energy market experts in Calgary for an oil conference this week agreed oil could continue to rise in the short-term, but the threatened recession in the US makes the long-term picture bleak. "We could see oil prices peaking as early as the start of the summer. We could see it in the second half of this year," Julian Lee, London-based senior energy analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies, told the Herald. However, he also predicted oil prices will fall, perhaps dramatically, if the US slips into a recession, an event that would cause a global slowdown. Lee expects oil to peak at about $120. Adam Sieminski, Washington-based chief energy economist for Deutsche Bank, said US demand for gasoline is flat and may be shrinking, as is the economy in general. Deutsche Bank is forecasting $97 to $98 per barrel as an average oil price this year and $102 to $103 in 2009. In sharp contrast, Calgary analyst Peter Linder, president of DeltaOne Capital Partners, said the oil rally will shrug off US economic problems. "That's what everybody's looking at, but there's a world outside the US," he said. "I think there's a 50-50 chance we'll reach $125 by Labour Day," Linder predicted. He said oil prices above $100 US will be the norm for the next 10 to 20 years.
West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery closed up $2.03, or 1.82%, at $113.79 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was driven by a combination of supply issues, rising diesel demand in China and persistent dollar weakness. The high price of oil means opportunity for Alberta according to Bruce Rigal., Deutsche Bank's coo of global banking. Rigal, who is a graduate of the University of Alberta and is now based in London, was in Edmonton on Monday, delivering the Princeton Developments distinguished lecture in finance at the University of Alberta. Having witnessed first-hand the growing economies in China and India, Rigal sees no respite from high oil prices. From his perspective, the growing middle classes in both countries will continue to fuel demand for oil and underpin the current pricing environment. He also folded Russia into his analysis, having spent part of his investment banking career at Deutsche Bank doing business there. The future bodes well for Alberta, says Rigal, because of the oilsands, but the province must capture more of its wealth -- one day, he said, the resource will run out. He suggested that one of the ways for Alberta to make the most of the energy boom is to use the Heritage Savings Trust Fund as one of the key vehicles to secure Alberta's future.
In other oil news, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to maintain that factors such as the weakness of the US dollar, speculative trading and political tension are lifting prices, not a lack of oil. In it latest Monthly Oil Market Report OPEC stated, "The fundamental picture in the second quarter of 2008 appears to be in line with the typical seasonal pattern for this time of year. Current OPEC production . . . will be sufficient to both meet demand growth and contribute to further stock builds."
(Calgary Herald 080416)
No surprises here.
Saskatchewan's golden future
Chinese potash importers agree to huge price rise
Saskatchewan potash producers have won a US$400-a-tonne price increase for this year's sales to massive Chinese buyer Sinofert Holdings, a move that lifted the shares of Canadian and US fertilizer producers on Wednesday. The contract negotiated by Canpotex, the offshore marketing agency for the Saskatchewan potash industry, was announced Wednesday morning by Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan. In addition to PotashCorp, Canpotex represents Agrium and Mosaic. PotashCorp, the world's biggest fertilizer producer, stated that “as a result of the timing of this settlement and unprecedented demand in other markets,” it has only one million tonnes it can commit to Sinofert through the rest of this year. “Significantly higher potash prices and extraordinarily tight supply have become much more firmly entrenched since China's previous contract was signed 14 months ago,” stated PotashCorp ceo Bill Doyle. “With the intense pressure on global food production and continued growth in potash demand, this is the reality for our industry for the foreseeable future.” Doyle noted that the settlement with Sinofert - which is one-fifth owned by PotashCorp and is the largest fertilizer distributor in China - “highlights the importance of securing supply in an increasingly tight market.” PotashCorp supplies 54% of Canpotex's requirements.
(Canadian Press, Reuters 080416)
PCS's stock price has gone up something like 200% in the past year...it is on track to become Canada's largest corporation by market share sometime this year. Bigger than RBC, bigger than Imperial Oil or Petro-Canada. Incredible.
Saskatchewan potash producers have won a US$400-a-tonne price increase for this year's sales to massive Chinese buyer Sinofert Holdings, a move that lifted the shares of Canadian and US fertilizer producers on Wednesday. The contract negotiated by Canpotex, the offshore marketing agency for the Saskatchewan potash industry, was announced Wednesday morning by Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan. In addition to PotashCorp, Canpotex represents Agrium and Mosaic. PotashCorp, the world's biggest fertilizer producer, stated that “as a result of the timing of this settlement and unprecedented demand in other markets,” it has only one million tonnes it can commit to Sinofert through the rest of this year. “Significantly higher potash prices and extraordinarily tight supply have become much more firmly entrenched since China's previous contract was signed 14 months ago,” stated PotashCorp ceo Bill Doyle. “With the intense pressure on global food production and continued growth in potash demand, this is the reality for our industry for the foreseeable future.” Doyle noted that the settlement with Sinofert - which is one-fifth owned by PotashCorp and is the largest fertilizer distributor in China - “highlights the importance of securing supply in an increasingly tight market.” PotashCorp supplies 54% of Canpotex's requirements.
(Canadian Press, Reuters 080416)
PCS's stock price has gone up something like 200% in the past year...it is on track to become Canada's largest corporation by market share sometime this year. Bigger than RBC, bigger than Imperial Oil or Petro-Canada. Incredible.
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