Gold tops $900 US an ounce as U.S. recession fears grow
Last Updated: Friday, January 11, 2008 | 5:04 PM ET
CBC News
Gold prices topped $900 US an ounce for the first time ever on Friday as investors flocked to what is increasingly seen as a safe haven for their money.
Gold futures for February delivery rose to $900.10 US an ounce in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $6.50 US from Thursday's close. The contract eventually settled at $897.20 US, up $3.60 US.
Gold broke through the $850 US level only last week. It rose by more than 30 per cent last year and has tripled in the last six years.
"Gold has reached a new high on the back of several factors all combining to create a very positive environment for the precious metal," ScotiaMocatta analyst Camilla Sutton told CBCNews.ca. "The combination of weakening U.S. economic fundamentals, inflation fears and high oil prices combined with de-hedging of some corporate gold books and strong [exchange-traded fund] demand has all helped gold reach an all-time nominal high."
Sutton said a pullback is likely but that the medium-term
outlook for gold is still positive. "The next major psychological level is certainly $1,000 US gold, and ScotiaMocatta believes we will see this in 2008," she said.
The TSX gold sub-index rose two per cent to a new 52-week high on Friday. Barrick Gold, Goldcorp, and Kinross Gold all hit new 52-week highs.
Investors are increasingly worried about a U.S. recession. Two major U.S. investment banks came out this week with predictions that the U.S. economy will either head into a recession this year or is already in one.
Last week's U.S. jobless report — which came in much weaker than analysts were expecting — also rattled markets and heightened recession fears.
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's comments Thursday that the Fed remains ready to make further "substantive" interest-rate cuts if needed served to further drive down the already weak U.S.dollar and drive up gold prices.
More market watchers now predict that the Fed will slash its key lending rate by half a percentage point on Jan. 30.
On Thursday, American Express added to the caution, with news that more of its customers are behind in their credit card payments. It set aside $440 million US to account for overdue loans. Capital One said much the same thing on Wednesday.
This really worries me. The fat cats know exactly what the rest of us fear, unfortunately they have the financial wherewithal to move their vehicles into the gold safe haven. Crap - I worry that this is going to be the terrible economic downturn your grandmother warned you about that's going to wipe out everything I have. Oh well, I guess myself along with the other 99.5% of the population that can't afford to buy gold at $900 an ounce, or any of the other precious metals, for that matter. They're all priced ridiculously high right now. Man, ominous signs everywhere, getting worse by the day.....
11 January 2008
Gabriel & Dresden - Friday, January 25th - The Warehouse
GABRIEL & DRESDEN - 3 HOUR SET LIVE @ Warehouse Nightclub 731 10th Ave S.W.
Fri January 25, 2008
Fehrenheit Promotions Presents
GABRIEL & DRESDEN - 3 HOUR SET LIVE
www.gabrielanddresden.com
www.goeshere.co.uk
Dom G - Weapon Records Eden Records
www.djdomg.com
www.clubfilthy.com
Tyler C www.djtylerc.com
Special Agent www.warehousenightclub.ca
Doors 9pm - 7am 18 + ID
Drink specials dollar hi balls til 1030pm
THE WAREHOUSE 731 10th Ave SW
Private Club Members and invited guests only.
*NOW ONSALE*
Tickets starting at $15 Advance More at the door
Onsale at Ticketmaster, clubZone.com All Underground locations, Phonics, Giant 45
Ticketmaster (Calgary)
http://www.ticketmaster.ca
403-777-0000
www.fehrenheit.com
Oil Prices: It Gets Worse
Wednesday, Nov. 07, 2007
By VIVIENNE WALT/PARIS for Time.com
Oil prices hit a record high of $97 a barrel on Tuesday, but the next generation of consumers could look back on that price with envy. The dire predictions of a key report on international oil supplies released Wednesday suggest that oil prices could move irreversibly over the $100-a-barrel threshold in the not too distant future, as the global economy faces a serious energy shortage.
This gloomy assessment comes from the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based organization representing the 26 rich, gas-guzzling member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The agency is not known for alarmist warnings, and its World Energy Outlook is typically viewed by policy wonks as a solid indicator of global energy supplies. In a marked change from its traditionally bland, measured tones, the IEA's 2007 report says governments need to make urgent, bold decisions on energy policy, or risk massive environmental and energy-supply crises within two decades — crises and shortages that could spark serious global conflicts.
"I am sorry to say this, but we are headed toward really bad days," IEA chief economist Fatih Birol told TIME this week. "Lots of targets have been set but very little has been done. There is a lot of talk and no action."
The reason for the IEA's alarm is its expectation that economic development will raise global energy demands by about 50% in a generation, from today's 85 million barrels a day to about 116 million barrels a day in 2030. Nearly half that increase in demand will come from just two countries — China and India, which are electrifying hundreds of cities and putting millions of new cars on their roads, most driven by people who once walked, or rode bicycles and buses. By 2030, those two countries will be responsible for two-thirds of the world's carbon gas emissions, which are the primary human activity causing global warming.
India and China have argued against enforcing strict emission controls in their countries, on the grounds that these could hinder their economic growth and prompt a global economic slowdown. But the new IEA report says working with China and India on alternative energy sources and curbing emissions is a matter of global urgency.
The bad news is not only environmental. As the world scrambles to boost energy supplies over the next two decades, an ever-greater percentage of its supplies of oil and gas will come from a dwindling number of countries, largely arrayed around the Persian Gulf, as the massive North Sea and Gulf of Mexico deposits are finally exhausted. That will leave the industrialized countries far more dependent on the volatile Middle East in 2030 than they are today, and the likes of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran will dictate terms to companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, which increasingly operate as contractors to state-run oil companies in many producer nations.
"Most of the oil companies are going to be in an identity crisis, and need to redefine their business strategies," Birol says. The soul-searching may have already begun, as oil executives begin sounding the alarm about the supply crunch that lies ahead. Last week, Christophe de Margerie, CEO of the French oil giant Total, told the Financial Times that even the target of 100 million barrels a day is an optimistic one for an industry that currently produces 85 million — far short of the 116 million barrels a day the IEA projects will be needed by 2030 to fuel the global economy.
And in a sharp departure from the usually reassuring comments offered by Big Oil executives, De Margerie said companies and governments now realize that they have overestimated the amount of oil that could be extracted from places difficult to reach and costly to explore. "It is not my view, it is the industry view," he said. In other words, the message is that the current sky-high oil prices may not be a temporary burden on the world economy.
Forecasting prices, however, has become an increasingly inexact science for analysts, as prices in recent months have galloped ahead of their worst predictions. Says Oswald Clint, a London-based analyst for Sanford Bernstein: "A year ago, our predictions for November 2007 were about $50 to $62 dollars a barrel" — at least $35 short of Tuesday's price. The oil-research firm predicts that expanded production will bring oil prices back to $70 a barrel by 2010. But to Birol, that sounds optimistic.
"If you want to lower prices you have to slow down oil demand growth in China and India, use cars more efficiently, use biofuels, and also convince producing countries to pump more oil," says Birol. But he is uncertain any of that will happen. "I don't see the political will." Then again, nothing fuels political will like a soaring price at the gas pump.
By VIVIENNE WALT/PARIS for Time.com
Oil prices hit a record high of $97 a barrel on Tuesday, but the next generation of consumers could look back on that price with envy. The dire predictions of a key report on international oil supplies released Wednesday suggest that oil prices could move irreversibly over the $100-a-barrel threshold in the not too distant future, as the global economy faces a serious energy shortage.
This gloomy assessment comes from the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based organization representing the 26 rich, gas-guzzling member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The agency is not known for alarmist warnings, and its World Energy Outlook is typically viewed by policy wonks as a solid indicator of global energy supplies. In a marked change from its traditionally bland, measured tones, the IEA's 2007 report says governments need to make urgent, bold decisions on energy policy, or risk massive environmental and energy-supply crises within two decades — crises and shortages that could spark serious global conflicts.
"I am sorry to say this, but we are headed toward really bad days," IEA chief economist Fatih Birol told TIME this week. "Lots of targets have been set but very little has been done. There is a lot of talk and no action."
The reason for the IEA's alarm is its expectation that economic development will raise global energy demands by about 50% in a generation, from today's 85 million barrels a day to about 116 million barrels a day in 2030. Nearly half that increase in demand will come from just two countries — China and India, which are electrifying hundreds of cities and putting millions of new cars on their roads, most driven by people who once walked, or rode bicycles and buses. By 2030, those two countries will be responsible for two-thirds of the world's carbon gas emissions, which are the primary human activity causing global warming.
India and China have argued against enforcing strict emission controls in their countries, on the grounds that these could hinder their economic growth and prompt a global economic slowdown. But the new IEA report says working with China and India on alternative energy sources and curbing emissions is a matter of global urgency.
The bad news is not only environmental. As the world scrambles to boost energy supplies over the next two decades, an ever-greater percentage of its supplies of oil and gas will come from a dwindling number of countries, largely arrayed around the Persian Gulf, as the massive North Sea and Gulf of Mexico deposits are finally exhausted. That will leave the industrialized countries far more dependent on the volatile Middle East in 2030 than they are today, and the likes of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran will dictate terms to companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, which increasingly operate as contractors to state-run oil companies in many producer nations.
"Most of the oil companies are going to be in an identity crisis, and need to redefine their business strategies," Birol says. The soul-searching may have already begun, as oil executives begin sounding the alarm about the supply crunch that lies ahead. Last week, Christophe de Margerie, CEO of the French oil giant Total, told the Financial Times that even the target of 100 million barrels a day is an optimistic one for an industry that currently produces 85 million — far short of the 116 million barrels a day the IEA projects will be needed by 2030 to fuel the global economy.
And in a sharp departure from the usually reassuring comments offered by Big Oil executives, De Margerie said companies and governments now realize that they have overestimated the amount of oil that could be extracted from places difficult to reach and costly to explore. "It is not my view, it is the industry view," he said. In other words, the message is that the current sky-high oil prices may not be a temporary burden on the world economy.
Forecasting prices, however, has become an increasingly inexact science for analysts, as prices in recent months have galloped ahead of their worst predictions. Says Oswald Clint, a London-based analyst for Sanford Bernstein: "A year ago, our predictions for November 2007 were about $50 to $62 dollars a barrel" — at least $35 short of Tuesday's price. The oil-research firm predicts that expanded production will bring oil prices back to $70 a barrel by 2010. But to Birol, that sounds optimistic.
"If you want to lower prices you have to slow down oil demand growth in China and India, use cars more efficiently, use biofuels, and also convince producing countries to pump more oil," says Birol. But he is uncertain any of that will happen. "I don't see the political will." Then again, nothing fuels political will like a soaring price at the gas pump.
10 January 2008
You Don't Want My Perfectly Good Junk? Fine.
Sexually active gay men no longer allowed to donate organs
Last Updated: Monday, January 7, 2008 | 10:08 PM ET
CBC News
A number of organ donation groups said Monday that they are unaware of new Health Canada regulations that mean sexually active gay men, injection drug users and other groups considered high risk will no longer be accepted as organ donors.
The new rules, which came into effect in December, are similar to the regulations for determining who can donate blood. Those rules exclude groups that are at high risk of transmitting infectious diseases such as HIV and hepatitis C and B.
Dr. Gary Levy, who heads Canada's largest organ transplant program at Toronto's University Health Network, said he was unaware of the new policy on organ donations. Officials at several transplant programs in the country said because they were unaware of the new regulations, they would continue to consider all potential donor organs.
"We have not been informed, first of all, that Health Canada is considering this," said Dr. Gary Levy, who heads Canada's largest organ transplant program at Toronto's University Health Network. "Obviously if Health Canada wishes to discuss that, we would hope they would engage all stakeholders."
Dr. Peter Nickerson, director of Transplant Manitoba, which procures organs in that province, said transplant programs must now by law interview family members of the donor as part of the screening process.
"We'll be asking about things like travel, history of infectious disease, whether they've [donors] been in jail — that puts you at increased risk," Nickerson said. "Have they been an IV drug abuser in the past? Have they had tattoos? There's a whole list of questions we go through."
They are also asked about the donor's sexual orientation. The donor will be excluded if the donor is a man who had sex with another man in the previous five years.
Health Canada had contracted the Canadian Standards Association in 2003 to come up with standardized guidelines to ensure the safety of the organ donation system.
Transplant programs have been screening potential donors, but in some cases use organs from people in high-risk groups if they've tested negative for diseases. The new legislation means that practice must stop.
A spokeswoman for Health Canada confirmed the new regulations in an e-mail, but the department didn't make anyone available to explain the changes.
Focus should be on behaviour: gay activist
Levy said organ donors shouldn't be held to the same high standards as blood donors because the stakes for the organ recipient are higher.
"Organ donation and the opportunity to save a life at a specific time — we have no substitute therapies," Levy said.
Levy estimates that out of 100 organ donors at his Toronto hospital every year, about seven will be rejected because of the new regulations. About 4,000 Canadians are waiting for an organ transplant.
Some in the gay community complained that the new policy is wrong-headed and that Health Canada should focus on risky sexual behaviours, not sexual orientation.
"I think it's more of an issue of anal sex, anal intercourse, than it is to do with whether someone is gay or straight," said Dean Robinson, a gay activist.
Oh boy - as if there wasn't enough of an Conservative initiative to alienate gays. It appears some people are prepared to let people die to further a ridiculous cause. And to those of you who talk about statistical risks, blah, blah, blah -- I'd just like to say that Canadian Blood Services screens ALL blood that comes through it's doors, and the Organ Donor process is not akin to drawing lottery numbers, okay? There is a concerted effort to marginalize gays in subversive ways as much as these initiatives were mandated in the 1950s.
...and my blood and organs AREN'T as good or better than most peoples in this country? Give me a break. Oh well, your loss. Fuck you.
There's lots of good dialog on this here and here.
From Montreal Simon:
First they don't want my perfectly healthy gay blood.
Now they don't want my perfectly healthy gay organs.
Not that I was in any hurry to donate my heart, my eyes and my kidneys. But it does seem a bit unfair.
Why should others be judged by their behaviour....while we're judged by who we are?
Even if we're monogamous. Or practice safe sex. Or are as healthy as anybody else...or healthier.
Even if all blood donations are TESTED.
And what about all those people waiting desperately for scarce organs? Don't they count?
In a society still poisoned by homophobia it's hard to tell where science and public safety end... and ignorance and prejudice begin.
But this seems like just another attempt by Stephen Harper's Con government to please the religious wingnuts.... who believe that ALL gay people are diseased.
And are prepared to do ANYTHING....even make sick Canadians suffer and maybe even die....to advance their crazy cause.
But hey...I'm not about to let these freaks get me down. If they hate me so much they won't even allow me to save another human's life ....they are not diminishing me... they are diminishing themselves. It's THEIR problem not mine.
Why should I beg for other people's lives? When I don't beg for ANYTHING. Why should I even take these quacks seriously? When they tell me my body is toxic...but I KNOW it's not.
And all I'll say is that SOMEBODY is REALLY going to pay for this!!!!!
Yup. You see I'm such a good citizen I not only wanted to donate my dreamy eyes, my brave heart, and my sturdy kidneys.
I was also prepared to make the ULTIMATE sacrifice. And donate my humungous cock to some guy... gay OR straight.... who was lucky enough to win the BIG draw.
But now I CAN'T.
Whew.
Isn't senseless discrimination absurd? I'm even more alienated.... but RELIEVED.
The old wingnuts could end up dying from the gay blood or gay organs they DIDN'T receive.
And the poor boys will be soooooo DISAPPOINTED...
Last Updated: Monday, January 7, 2008 | 10:08 PM ET
CBC News
A number of organ donation groups said Monday that they are unaware of new Health Canada regulations that mean sexually active gay men, injection drug users and other groups considered high risk will no longer be accepted as organ donors.
The new rules, which came into effect in December, are similar to the regulations for determining who can donate blood. Those rules exclude groups that are at high risk of transmitting infectious diseases such as HIV and hepatitis C and B.
Dr. Gary Levy, who heads Canada's largest organ transplant program at Toronto's University Health Network, said he was unaware of the new policy on organ donations. Officials at several transplant programs in the country said because they were unaware of the new regulations, they would continue to consider all potential donor organs.
"We have not been informed, first of all, that Health Canada is considering this," said Dr. Gary Levy, who heads Canada's largest organ transplant program at Toronto's University Health Network. "Obviously if Health Canada wishes to discuss that, we would hope they would engage all stakeholders."
Dr. Peter Nickerson, director of Transplant Manitoba, which procures organs in that province, said transplant programs must now by law interview family members of the donor as part of the screening process.
"We'll be asking about things like travel, history of infectious disease, whether they've [donors] been in jail — that puts you at increased risk," Nickerson said. "Have they been an IV drug abuser in the past? Have they had tattoos? There's a whole list of questions we go through."
They are also asked about the donor's sexual orientation. The donor will be excluded if the donor is a man who had sex with another man in the previous five years.
Health Canada had contracted the Canadian Standards Association in 2003 to come up with standardized guidelines to ensure the safety of the organ donation system.
Transplant programs have been screening potential donors, but in some cases use organs from people in high-risk groups if they've tested negative for diseases. The new legislation means that practice must stop.
A spokeswoman for Health Canada confirmed the new regulations in an e-mail, but the department didn't make anyone available to explain the changes.
Focus should be on behaviour: gay activist
Levy said organ donors shouldn't be held to the same high standards as blood donors because the stakes for the organ recipient are higher.
"Organ donation and the opportunity to save a life at a specific time — we have no substitute therapies," Levy said.
Levy estimates that out of 100 organ donors at his Toronto hospital every year, about seven will be rejected because of the new regulations. About 4,000 Canadians are waiting for an organ transplant.
Some in the gay community complained that the new policy is wrong-headed and that Health Canada should focus on risky sexual behaviours, not sexual orientation.
"I think it's more of an issue of anal sex, anal intercourse, than it is to do with whether someone is gay or straight," said Dean Robinson, a gay activist.
Oh boy - as if there wasn't enough of an Conservative initiative to alienate gays. It appears some people are prepared to let people die to further a ridiculous cause. And to those of you who talk about statistical risks, blah, blah, blah -- I'd just like to say that Canadian Blood Services screens ALL blood that comes through it's doors, and the Organ Donor process is not akin to drawing lottery numbers, okay? There is a concerted effort to marginalize gays in subversive ways as much as these initiatives were mandated in the 1950s.
...and my blood and organs AREN'T as good or better than most peoples in this country? Give me a break. Oh well, your loss. Fuck you.
There's lots of good dialog on this here and here.
From Montreal Simon:
First they don't want my perfectly healthy gay blood.
Now they don't want my perfectly healthy gay organs.
Not that I was in any hurry to donate my heart, my eyes and my kidneys. But it does seem a bit unfair.
Why should others be judged by their behaviour....while we're judged by who we are?
Even if we're monogamous. Or practice safe sex. Or are as healthy as anybody else...or healthier.
Even if all blood donations are TESTED.
And what about all those people waiting desperately for scarce organs? Don't they count?
In a society still poisoned by homophobia it's hard to tell where science and public safety end... and ignorance and prejudice begin.
But this seems like just another attempt by Stephen Harper's Con government to please the religious wingnuts.... who believe that ALL gay people are diseased.
And are prepared to do ANYTHING....even make sick Canadians suffer and maybe even die....to advance their crazy cause.
But hey...I'm not about to let these freaks get me down. If they hate me so much they won't even allow me to save another human's life ....they are not diminishing me... they are diminishing themselves. It's THEIR problem not mine.
Why should I beg for other people's lives? When I don't beg for ANYTHING. Why should I even take these quacks seriously? When they tell me my body is toxic...but I KNOW it's not.
And all I'll say is that SOMEBODY is REALLY going to pay for this!!!!!
Yup. You see I'm such a good citizen I not only wanted to donate my dreamy eyes, my brave heart, and my sturdy kidneys.
I was also prepared to make the ULTIMATE sacrifice. And donate my humungous cock to some guy... gay OR straight.... who was lucky enough to win the BIG draw.
But now I CAN'T.
Whew.
Isn't senseless discrimination absurd? I'm even more alienated.... but RELIEVED.
The old wingnuts could end up dying from the gay blood or gay organs they DIDN'T receive.
And the poor boys will be soooooo DISAPPOINTED...
04 January 2008
02 January 2008
Pastafarians, Rejoice!
Here is a montage of various FSM decorations that adorned people's Christmas trees, doors, and cookie sheets this year!
RAmen
RAmen
What a great way to start 2008!
Oil hits $100 US, gold also hits record
Last Updated: Wednesday, January 2, 2008 | 1:25 PM ET
CBC News
Oil hit $100 US a barrel for the first time and gold prices broke a 28-year-old record on Wednesday as the bull run in commodities got new wind.
Data from the New York Mercantile Exchange indicated the price of the February contract for light, sweet crude oil hit $100 US shortly after noon ET. The price slipped to $99.32 US by 12:18 p.m. ET, up $3.35 US.
That broke the record of $99.29 US a barrel that was set last November.
Oil prices jumped after OPEC warned it might not be able to meet its share of global oil demand as early as 2024.
Fresh violence in Nigeria — a major global oil producer — was also seen as a factor in driving up prices.
On Tuesday, armed militants attacked two police stations and a hotel in the main oil industry centre of Port Harcourt. Thirteen people, including four police officers and six attackers, were reported killed in the raids.
Attacks by the militants have reduced Nigeria's oil exports by about 20 per cent over the past two years, putting upward pressure on global prices.
On Thursday, the U.S. government releases its weekly report on oil supply data. Analysts are looking for supplies to show a seventh consecutive weekly decline.
Oil prices rose almost 60 per cent in 2007 as inventories shrank amid continuing strong demand. The big rise in oil is often cited as one of the main reasons for the rise in the Canadian dollar. The loonie — which gained almost 20 per cent against the U.S. dollar last year — was up .12 cents at $1.01 US in early afternoon trading.
Gold breaks 28-year-old record
The futures contract price for gold for February delivery hit $861.60 US per ounce in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $23.60 US from the previous close.
The spot gold price hit $858 US an ounce in morning trading. That tops the previous intraday record high of $850 US an ounce set on Jan. 21, 1980.
Once inflation is taken into account, of course, gold is nowhere near record levels. For gold prices to hit an inflation-adjusted record high, bullion would need to be worth about $2,200 US an ounce today, depending on which inflation measure is used.
Stronger oil prices, a weak U.S. dollar and global political tensions were all cited by analysts as reasons behind gold's latest rise.
Gold prices rose 30 per cent in 2007 and are up more than 50 per cent in the last two years.
Platinum also hit an all-time high.
Yeesh. Things are already looking dire. OPEC is already scaling back their reserve estimates by another decade. Last year they were all, "we'll be able to provide swing production for decades", along with the IEA/CERA estimates that Peak Oil was 30 or 40 years away. Does it not seem strange that speculation and political issues are causing swings in futures pricing of 5% on a regular basis if there's continually increasing supplies in the pipe? Still, no one seems to want to go any deeper into the assertions that production is flat, while demand continues to increase, particularly in those nations that used to be dependable exporters (eg. Saudi Arabia, Norway, Russia) but now feel the need to hold onto more and more of their production for insatiable domestic consumption (hey, the Russians are buying cars now at record numbers too).
This will affect the U.S. most of all. With the subprime mortgage fiasco only to get worse this year, potential chocks in the importing chain will raise the cost of energy and the inflation even more. It all could not have some at a worse time. The U.S. imports upwards of 70% of its oil and gas, and 70% of its economy depends on consumer spending. How scary a tenuous situation is that?
It seems everyone understands that we may have to very soon start living with less or spending a lot more for the same things. I think 2008 is going to be the year of a start to global economic hurt, the year when everything becomes obvious to the most ignorant, when the politicians, economists and bankers will no longer be able to say, "everything's good - don't worry, be happy and spend, spend, SPEND!
All they were interested in is trying to keep the sinking ship afloat until bonus time at Christmas so all the powerful shills make their big money. Certain governments will try to navigate the system through all of this year's shit by throwing liquidity at the banks, etc. until the mortgage and credit crises work through the system, but I'm sure they're crapping bricks too. They can't be too confident that they're going to be able to drive through the oncoming storm either. Batten the hatches! It's gonna be a wild ride!
Last Updated: Wednesday, January 2, 2008 | 1:25 PM ET
CBC News
Oil hit $100 US a barrel for the first time and gold prices broke a 28-year-old record on Wednesday as the bull run in commodities got new wind.
Data from the New York Mercantile Exchange indicated the price of the February contract for light, sweet crude oil hit $100 US shortly after noon ET. The price slipped to $99.32 US by 12:18 p.m. ET, up $3.35 US.
That broke the record of $99.29 US a barrel that was set last November.
Oil prices jumped after OPEC warned it might not be able to meet its share of global oil demand as early as 2024.
Fresh violence in Nigeria — a major global oil producer — was also seen as a factor in driving up prices.
On Tuesday, armed militants attacked two police stations and a hotel in the main oil industry centre of Port Harcourt. Thirteen people, including four police officers and six attackers, were reported killed in the raids.
Attacks by the militants have reduced Nigeria's oil exports by about 20 per cent over the past two years, putting upward pressure on global prices.
On Thursday, the U.S. government releases its weekly report on oil supply data. Analysts are looking for supplies to show a seventh consecutive weekly decline.
Oil prices rose almost 60 per cent in 2007 as inventories shrank amid continuing strong demand. The big rise in oil is often cited as one of the main reasons for the rise in the Canadian dollar. The loonie — which gained almost 20 per cent against the U.S. dollar last year — was up .12 cents at $1.01 US in early afternoon trading.
Gold breaks 28-year-old record
The futures contract price for gold for February delivery hit $861.60 US per ounce in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $23.60 US from the previous close.
The spot gold price hit $858 US an ounce in morning trading. That tops the previous intraday record high of $850 US an ounce set on Jan. 21, 1980.
Once inflation is taken into account, of course, gold is nowhere near record levels. For gold prices to hit an inflation-adjusted record high, bullion would need to be worth about $2,200 US an ounce today, depending on which inflation measure is used.
Stronger oil prices, a weak U.S. dollar and global political tensions were all cited by analysts as reasons behind gold's latest rise.
Gold prices rose 30 per cent in 2007 and are up more than 50 per cent in the last two years.
Platinum also hit an all-time high.
Yeesh. Things are already looking dire. OPEC is already scaling back their reserve estimates by another decade. Last year they were all, "we'll be able to provide swing production for decades", along with the IEA/CERA estimates that Peak Oil was 30 or 40 years away. Does it not seem strange that speculation and political issues are causing swings in futures pricing of 5% on a regular basis if there's continually increasing supplies in the pipe? Still, no one seems to want to go any deeper into the assertions that production is flat, while demand continues to increase, particularly in those nations that used to be dependable exporters (eg. Saudi Arabia, Norway, Russia) but now feel the need to hold onto more and more of their production for insatiable domestic consumption (hey, the Russians are buying cars now at record numbers too).
This will affect the U.S. most of all. With the subprime mortgage fiasco only to get worse this year, potential chocks in the importing chain will raise the cost of energy and the inflation even more. It all could not have some at a worse time. The U.S. imports upwards of 70% of its oil and gas, and 70% of its economy depends on consumer spending. How scary a tenuous situation is that?
It seems everyone understands that we may have to very soon start living with less or spending a lot more for the same things. I think 2008 is going to be the year of a start to global economic hurt, the year when everything becomes obvious to the most ignorant, when the politicians, economists and bankers will no longer be able to say, "everything's good - don't worry, be happy and spend, spend, SPEND!
All they were interested in is trying to keep the sinking ship afloat until bonus time at Christmas so all the powerful shills make their big money. Certain governments will try to navigate the system through all of this year's shit by throwing liquidity at the banks, etc. until the mortgage and credit crises work through the system, but I'm sure they're crapping bricks too. They can't be too confident that they're going to be able to drive through the oncoming storm either. Batten the hatches! It's gonna be a wild ride!
17 December 2007
Bali Brou-haha
Canada backs down on climate 'road map'
The Harper government and the Bush administration caved in to international pressure at the United Nations climate change summit Saturday, accepting the "Bali road map" toward a new comprehensive agreement to try to stop human activity from causing irreversible damage to the Earth's atmosphere and ecosystems. The framework was hailed by the UN's top climate-change official, Yvo de Boer, as an ambitious, transparent and flexible solution on the road to a comprehensive treaty in 2009, imposing deeper commitments on the richest nations in the world to slash their greenhouse gas emissions, as well as softer targets or commitments for developing countries to come into force after the end of the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period in 2012. With the Harper government silent, several developing countries, along with the European Union members, protested, booed and resisted attempts by the US, which has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, to impose what most of the countries felt were unfair obligations on the developing world in the fight against climate change. The pressure eventually forced US lead negotiator Paula Dobriansky to cave in and accept the consensus, allowing the Bali road map to be adopted. In a subsequent debate by Kyoto countries, Canadian Environment minister John Baird attempted to stop members of the protocol from declaring that developed countries should collectively strive to deepen their post-2012 emission targets in the range of a 25 to 40% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020. The Harper government has insisted that such a measure would be impossible for Canada to achieve in 12 years. But following a series of rebukes, criticism and pleas from 17 different countries, Baird told the conference he would "stand down," garnering a warm ovation from delegates. The concession also meant that he had failed to achieve his main objective of getting binding commitments for major emerging economies such as China and India to reduce their emissions in absolute terms. The Bali road map consists of a framework for emissions cuts, the transfer of clean technology to developing countries, reducing deforestation, and adaptation aid for developing countries vulnerable to droughts and rising sea levels.
(Globe and Mail, Calgary Herald 071215; Calgary Herald 071216)
Corporate Canada braces for new rules on emissions
Canadian corporations can expect growing pressure in the coming years to reduce greenhouse gas emissions beyond what the federal government has already pledged after Ottawa reluctantly accepted new targets at an international climate change conference in Bali. The Conservative government is now finalizing regulations for large industrial emitters and for the auto industry as part of its plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from 2006 levels by 2020. But before the ink is even dry on those rules, Canada will be facing pressure to cut further and faster – which will inevitably result in new demands on business, Christine Schuh, director of sustainable business practices for PricewaterhouseCoopers in Calgary, said yesterday. She said the two-week Bali conference, which ended Saturday, set an aggressive timetable to negotiate a global agreement on post-2012 climate change targets, and endorsed the International Panel on Climate Change view that dramatic action is needed to avert an environmental crisis. “Business can expect new demands to reduce greenhouse gas emissions … There are still a lot of people who thought they could negotiate their way out of the impending regime, but that is clearly not on.” Recent surveys of Canadian companies indicate relatively few have allocated budgets to cut greenhouse gas emissions, or had senior management focus on how the climate change issue will affect their business. Companies say they are waiting for clarity from the federal government in terms of the new climate change regulations. However, Julia Langer, of World Wildlife Federation, said it is unlikely the current government plan will be the last word. At Bali over the weekend, Canada grudgingly accepted broad targets to reduce emissions by 2020 by between 25% and 40% from 1990 levels. The agreement is part of an accord that covers all 38 of the countries that ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
(Globe and Mail 071217)
The Harper government and the Bush administration caved in to international pressure at the United Nations climate change summit Saturday, accepting the "Bali road map" toward a new comprehensive agreement to try to stop human activity from causing irreversible damage to the Earth's atmosphere and ecosystems. The framework was hailed by the UN's top climate-change official, Yvo de Boer, as an ambitious, transparent and flexible solution on the road to a comprehensive treaty in 2009, imposing deeper commitments on the richest nations in the world to slash their greenhouse gas emissions, as well as softer targets or commitments for developing countries to come into force after the end of the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period in 2012. With the Harper government silent, several developing countries, along with the European Union members, protested, booed and resisted attempts by the US, which has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, to impose what most of the countries felt were unfair obligations on the developing world in the fight against climate change. The pressure eventually forced US lead negotiator Paula Dobriansky to cave in and accept the consensus, allowing the Bali road map to be adopted. In a subsequent debate by Kyoto countries, Canadian Environment minister John Baird attempted to stop members of the protocol from declaring that developed countries should collectively strive to deepen their post-2012 emission targets in the range of a 25 to 40% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020. The Harper government has insisted that such a measure would be impossible for Canada to achieve in 12 years. But following a series of rebukes, criticism and pleas from 17 different countries, Baird told the conference he would "stand down," garnering a warm ovation from delegates. The concession also meant that he had failed to achieve his main objective of getting binding commitments for major emerging economies such as China and India to reduce their emissions in absolute terms. The Bali road map consists of a framework for emissions cuts, the transfer of clean technology to developing countries, reducing deforestation, and adaptation aid for developing countries vulnerable to droughts and rising sea levels.
(Globe and Mail, Calgary Herald 071215; Calgary Herald 071216)
Corporate Canada braces for new rules on emissions
Canadian corporations can expect growing pressure in the coming years to reduce greenhouse gas emissions beyond what the federal government has already pledged after Ottawa reluctantly accepted new targets at an international climate change conference in Bali. The Conservative government is now finalizing regulations for large industrial emitters and for the auto industry as part of its plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from 2006 levels by 2020. But before the ink is even dry on those rules, Canada will be facing pressure to cut further and faster – which will inevitably result in new demands on business, Christine Schuh, director of sustainable business practices for PricewaterhouseCoopers in Calgary, said yesterday. She said the two-week Bali conference, which ended Saturday, set an aggressive timetable to negotiate a global agreement on post-2012 climate change targets, and endorsed the International Panel on Climate Change view that dramatic action is needed to avert an environmental crisis. “Business can expect new demands to reduce greenhouse gas emissions … There are still a lot of people who thought they could negotiate their way out of the impending regime, but that is clearly not on.” Recent surveys of Canadian companies indicate relatively few have allocated budgets to cut greenhouse gas emissions, or had senior management focus on how the climate change issue will affect their business. Companies say they are waiting for clarity from the federal government in terms of the new climate change regulations. However, Julia Langer, of World Wildlife Federation, said it is unlikely the current government plan will be the last word. At Bali over the weekend, Canada grudgingly accepted broad targets to reduce emissions by 2020 by between 25% and 40% from 1990 levels. The agreement is part of an accord that covers all 38 of the countries that ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
(Globe and Mail 071217)
06 December 2007
Wanted: Deep Cuts
Cut emissions 50%: scientists
Leading scientists, including several from Canada, are urging the international climate summit to commit to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. "There is no time to lose," says the Bali Declaration by Scientists, to be released today at the United Nations climate conference where delegates from almost 200 countries are meeting to hammer out an international framework for reducing emissions. The scientists are calling for cuts of at least 50% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to try to keep the rise in the global temperature below 2 C. While 2 C does not sound like much, researchers say warming above that threshold would be enough to trigger mass species extinctions and accelerate melting of polar ice sheets, which could lead to a seven-metre rise in sea level in coming centuries. The declaration says humanity has a "window" of as little as 10 years to turn the situation around. Meantime, emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities continue to rise quickly and the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere "now far exceeds the natural range of the past 650,000 years." The declaration says, "If this trend is not halted soon, many millions of people will be at risk from extreme events such as heat waves, drought, floods and storms, our coasts and cities threatened by rising sea levels, and many ecosystems, plants and animal species in serious danger of extinction."
(Calgary Herald 071206)
Leading scientists, including several from Canada, are urging the international climate summit to commit to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. "There is no time to lose," says the Bali Declaration by Scientists, to be released today at the United Nations climate conference where delegates from almost 200 countries are meeting to hammer out an international framework for reducing emissions. The scientists are calling for cuts of at least 50% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to try to keep the rise in the global temperature below 2 C. While 2 C does not sound like much, researchers say warming above that threshold would be enough to trigger mass species extinctions and accelerate melting of polar ice sheets, which could lead to a seven-metre rise in sea level in coming centuries. The declaration says humanity has a "window" of as little as 10 years to turn the situation around. Meantime, emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities continue to rise quickly and the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere "now far exceeds the natural range of the past 650,000 years." The declaration says, "If this trend is not halted soon, many millions of people will be at risk from extreme events such as heat waves, drought, floods and storms, our coasts and cities threatened by rising sea levels, and many ecosystems, plants and animal species in serious danger of extinction."
(Calgary Herald 071206)
05 December 2007
04 December 2007
Everyone's gettin' squeezed
Oil, gas explorers feeling pressure of new price floor
Oil and gas explorers around the world need US$70 a barrel oil on a sustained basis to make the returns they were making only a couple of years ago with oil prices at $30, according to a study by international energy research firm Wood Mackenzie. Rising costs for equipment, lack of access to many basins and more challenging plays have elevated prices needed to earn a return of 15% on exploration, Andrew Latham, vp of exploration service, said from Edinburgh, where the firm is based.
"Things have changed quite quickly," he said. "What we are seeing is the equivalent of a new price floor for explorers, and the US$30 that worked two or three years ago certainly doesn't work anymore." The higher floor price is contributing to the higher price of oil, he said. The study, based on an analysis of conventional exploration in 400 basins around the world, found the cost of drilling alone has risen by 60% since 2004.
Latham said the basins hit hardest are those in deep waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, offshore West Africa and Brazil, where there is a shortage of all types of equipment, from drilling rigs to floating production facilities.
(National Post 071128)
Oil and gas explorers around the world need US$70 a barrel oil on a sustained basis to make the returns they were making only a couple of years ago with oil prices at $30, according to a study by international energy research firm Wood Mackenzie. Rising costs for equipment, lack of access to many basins and more challenging plays have elevated prices needed to earn a return of 15% on exploration, Andrew Latham, vp of exploration service, said from Edinburgh, where the firm is based.
"Things have changed quite quickly," he said. "What we are seeing is the equivalent of a new price floor for explorers, and the US$30 that worked two or three years ago certainly doesn't work anymore." The higher floor price is contributing to the higher price of oil, he said. The study, based on an analysis of conventional exploration in 400 basins around the world, found the cost of drilling alone has risen by 60% since 2004.
Latham said the basins hit hardest are those in deep waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, offshore West Africa and Brazil, where there is a shortage of all types of equipment, from drilling rigs to floating production facilities.
(National Post 071128)
Understatement of the Year
Web user sentenced for killing online rival
Last Updated: Wednesday, November 28, 2007 | 8:58 AM ET
The Associated Press
A 48-year-old Buffalo, N.Y., man entangled in an internet love triangle built largely on lies was sentenced Tuesday to 20 years in prison for killing his rival for the affection of a woman he had never met.
Thomas Montgomery, who posed as an 18-year-old marine in online chats, pleaded guilty in August to gunning down Brian Barrett, 22, in a parking lot at the suburban Buffalo factory where they worked.
The motive was jealousy, investigators said. Both were involved online with a middle-aged West Virginia mother — who herself was posing as an 18-year-old student.
Prosecutor Frank Sedita argued for the maximum sentence of 25 years, describing Montgomery's "almost predatory" pursuit of the woman and his resentment of Barrett when she cooled to Montgomery's advances after 1½ years and thousands of pages of internet chats.
"The chats reveal an obsessive desire to make Brian Barrett suffer," Sedita said.
Barrett, a college student who aspired to be an industrial arts teacher, was shot three times at close range after climbing into his truck at the end of a shift at Dynabrade in Clarence on Sept. 15, 2006. His body was found two days later by a co-worker.
"My wife and I don't understand how this could happen, how such evil could walk the Earth," Barrett's father, Daniel, said at the sentencing hearing. "To gun down a boy over simple jealousy does not make sense to us."
Montgomery's lawyer said fantasy and reality blurred for the then-married father of two teenage daughters, who was involved in his church and was president of his daughters' swim club.
"Until September 2006, this was a man who held his head high," attorney John Nuchereno said. "By September 2006 — call it an obsession, call it an addiction, call it what you want — he was suffering from a diminished capacity of some sort."
Montgomery, now divorced, attempted suicide in his jail cell after his arrest. He chose not to speak at his sentencing.
Montgomery began chatting with the woman, identified in court as Mary Sheiler, in 2005.
Occasionally, the woman would mail packages to his home. When one of the packages was intercepted by Montgomery's wife, she wrote back, telling Sheiler her husband's true age and saying he was married.
Barrett, whom Montgomery had mentioned in his exchanges, was drawn into the triangle after the woman contacted him online to confirm what she had been told by Montgomery's wife.
Justice Penny Wolfgang called the situation a "consequence of misuse of the internet."
No shit.
Last Updated: Wednesday, November 28, 2007 | 8:58 AM ET
The Associated Press
A 48-year-old Buffalo, N.Y., man entangled in an internet love triangle built largely on lies was sentenced Tuesday to 20 years in prison for killing his rival for the affection of a woman he had never met.
Thomas Montgomery, who posed as an 18-year-old marine in online chats, pleaded guilty in August to gunning down Brian Barrett, 22, in a parking lot at the suburban Buffalo factory where they worked.
The motive was jealousy, investigators said. Both were involved online with a middle-aged West Virginia mother — who herself was posing as an 18-year-old student.
Prosecutor Frank Sedita argued for the maximum sentence of 25 years, describing Montgomery's "almost predatory" pursuit of the woman and his resentment of Barrett when she cooled to Montgomery's advances after 1½ years and thousands of pages of internet chats.
"The chats reveal an obsessive desire to make Brian Barrett suffer," Sedita said.
Barrett, a college student who aspired to be an industrial arts teacher, was shot three times at close range after climbing into his truck at the end of a shift at Dynabrade in Clarence on Sept. 15, 2006. His body was found two days later by a co-worker.
"My wife and I don't understand how this could happen, how such evil could walk the Earth," Barrett's father, Daniel, said at the sentencing hearing. "To gun down a boy over simple jealousy does not make sense to us."
Montgomery's lawyer said fantasy and reality blurred for the then-married father of two teenage daughters, who was involved in his church and was president of his daughters' swim club.
"Until September 2006, this was a man who held his head high," attorney John Nuchereno said. "By September 2006 — call it an obsession, call it an addiction, call it what you want — he was suffering from a diminished capacity of some sort."
Montgomery, now divorced, attempted suicide in his jail cell after his arrest. He chose not to speak at his sentencing.
Montgomery began chatting with the woman, identified in court as Mary Sheiler, in 2005.
Occasionally, the woman would mail packages to his home. When one of the packages was intercepted by Montgomery's wife, she wrote back, telling Sheiler her husband's true age and saying he was married.
Barrett, whom Montgomery had mentioned in his exchanges, was drawn into the triangle after the woman contacted him online to confirm what she had been told by Montgomery's wife.
Justice Penny Wolfgang called the situation a "consequence of misuse of the internet."
No shit.
New Britain Is Sinking
Islanders seek climate summit help
KILU, Papua New Guinea (AP) -- Squealing pigs lit out for the bush and Filomena Taroa herded the grandkids to higher ground last week when the sea rolled in deeper than anyone had ever seen.
What was happening? "I don't know," the sturdy, barefoot grandmother told a visitor. "I'd never experienced it before."
As scientists warn of rising seas from global warming, more and more reports are coming in from villages like this one on Papua New Guinea's New Britain island of flooding from unprecedented high tides. It's happening not only to low-lying atolls, but to shorelines from Alaska to India.
This week, by boat, bus and jetliner, a handful of villagers are converging on Bali, Indonesia, to seek help from the more than 180 nations gathered at the U.N. climate conference. The coastal dwellers' plight -- once theoretical -- appears all too real in 2007, and is spreading and worsening.
Scientists project that seas expanding from warmth and from the runoff of melting land ice may displace millions of coastal inhabitants worldwide in this century if heat-trapping industrial emissions are not sharply curtailed.
A Europe-based research group, the Global Governance Project, will propose at the two-week Bali meeting that an international fund be established to resettle "climate refugees."
Summarizing the islanders' plight, Ursula Rakova said: "We don't have vehicles, an airport. We're merely victims of what is happening with the industrialized nations emitting `greenhouse gases."'
The sands of Rakova's islands, the Carteret atoll northeast of Bougainville island, have been giving way to the sea for 20 years. The saltwater has ruined their taro gardens, a food staple, and has contaminated their wells and flooded homesteads. The remote islands now suffer from chronic hunger.
The national government has appropriated $800,000 to resettle a few Carteret families on Bougainville, out of 3,000 islanders. "That's not enough," Rakova told The Associated Press in Papua New Guinea's capital, Port Moresby. "The islands are getting smaller.
Basically, everybody will have to leave."
In a landmark series of reports this year, the U.N. climate-science network reported seas rose by a global average of about 0.12 inches annually from 1993 to 2003, as compared with about 0.08 inches annually for the period 1961-2003.
But a 2006 study by Australian oceanographers found the rise was much higher, almost one inch every year, in parts of the western Pacific and Indian oceans. "It turns out the ocean sloshes around," said the University of Tasmania's Nathaniel Bindoff, a lead author on oceans in the U.N. reports. "It's moving, and so on a regional basis the ocean's movement is causing sea-level variations -- ups and downs."
Regional temperatures and atmospheric conditions, currents, undersea and shoreline topography are all factors contributing to sea levels. On some atolls, which are the above-water remnants of ancient volcanoes, the coral underpinnings are subsiding and adding to the sinking effect.
The oceanic "sloshing" is steadily taking land from such western Pacific island nations as Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands. In Papua New Guinea, reports have trickled in this year of fast-encroaching tides on shorelines of the northern island province of Manus, the mainland peninsular village of Malasiga and the Duke of York Islands off New Britain.
International media attention paid to the Carteret Islands, the best-known case, seems to have drawn out others, said Papua New Guinea's senior climatologist, Kasis Inape.
"Most of the low-lying islands and atolls are in the same situation," Inape said in Port Moresby.
Here in Kilu on the Bismarck Sea, on a brilliant blue bay ringed by smoldering volcanoes, swaying coconut palms and thin-walled homes on stilts, the invading waves last year forced some villagers to move their houses inland 20 or more yards -- taking along their pigs, chickens and fears of worse to come.
It did, on November 25, when the highest waters yet sent them scurrying. "We think the sea is rising," said 20-year-old villager Joe Balele. "We don't know why."
The scene is repeated on shores across the Pacific, most tragically on tiny island territories with no "inland" to turn to.
Preparing to head to Bali to present her people's case on Tuesday at the U.N. climate conference, Rakova searched for words to explain what was happening back home.
"Our people have been there 300 or 400 years," she said. "We'll be moving away from the islands we were born in and grew up in. We'll have to give up our identity."
KILU, Papua New Guinea (AP) -- Squealing pigs lit out for the bush and Filomena Taroa herded the grandkids to higher ground last week when the sea rolled in deeper than anyone had ever seen.
What was happening? "I don't know," the sturdy, barefoot grandmother told a visitor. "I'd never experienced it before."
As scientists warn of rising seas from global warming, more and more reports are coming in from villages like this one on Papua New Guinea's New Britain island of flooding from unprecedented high tides. It's happening not only to low-lying atolls, but to shorelines from Alaska to India.
This week, by boat, bus and jetliner, a handful of villagers are converging on Bali, Indonesia, to seek help from the more than 180 nations gathered at the U.N. climate conference. The coastal dwellers' plight -- once theoretical -- appears all too real in 2007, and is spreading and worsening.
Scientists project that seas expanding from warmth and from the runoff of melting land ice may displace millions of coastal inhabitants worldwide in this century if heat-trapping industrial emissions are not sharply curtailed.
A Europe-based research group, the Global Governance Project, will propose at the two-week Bali meeting that an international fund be established to resettle "climate refugees."
Summarizing the islanders' plight, Ursula Rakova said: "We don't have vehicles, an airport. We're merely victims of what is happening with the industrialized nations emitting `greenhouse gases."'
The sands of Rakova's islands, the Carteret atoll northeast of Bougainville island, have been giving way to the sea for 20 years. The saltwater has ruined their taro gardens, a food staple, and has contaminated their wells and flooded homesteads. The remote islands now suffer from chronic hunger.
The national government has appropriated $800,000 to resettle a few Carteret families on Bougainville, out of 3,000 islanders. "That's not enough," Rakova told The Associated Press in Papua New Guinea's capital, Port Moresby. "The islands are getting smaller.
Basically, everybody will have to leave."
In a landmark series of reports this year, the U.N. climate-science network reported seas rose by a global average of about 0.12 inches annually from 1993 to 2003, as compared with about 0.08 inches annually for the period 1961-2003.
But a 2006 study by Australian oceanographers found the rise was much higher, almost one inch every year, in parts of the western Pacific and Indian oceans. "It turns out the ocean sloshes around," said the University of Tasmania's Nathaniel Bindoff, a lead author on oceans in the U.N. reports. "It's moving, and so on a regional basis the ocean's movement is causing sea-level variations -- ups and downs."
Regional temperatures and atmospheric conditions, currents, undersea and shoreline topography are all factors contributing to sea levels. On some atolls, which are the above-water remnants of ancient volcanoes, the coral underpinnings are subsiding and adding to the sinking effect.
The oceanic "sloshing" is steadily taking land from such western Pacific island nations as Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands. In Papua New Guinea, reports have trickled in this year of fast-encroaching tides on shorelines of the northern island province of Manus, the mainland peninsular village of Malasiga and the Duke of York Islands off New Britain.
International media attention paid to the Carteret Islands, the best-known case, seems to have drawn out others, said Papua New Guinea's senior climatologist, Kasis Inape.
"Most of the low-lying islands and atolls are in the same situation," Inape said in Port Moresby.
Here in Kilu on the Bismarck Sea, on a brilliant blue bay ringed by smoldering volcanoes, swaying coconut palms and thin-walled homes on stilts, the invading waves last year forced some villagers to move their houses inland 20 or more yards -- taking along their pigs, chickens and fears of worse to come.
It did, on November 25, when the highest waters yet sent them scurrying. "We think the sea is rising," said 20-year-old villager Joe Balele. "We don't know why."
The scene is repeated on shores across the Pacific, most tragically on tiny island territories with no "inland" to turn to.
Preparing to head to Bali to present her people's case on Tuesday at the U.N. climate conference, Rakova searched for words to explain what was happening back home.
"Our people have been there 300 or 400 years," she said. "We'll be moving away from the islands we were born in and grew up in. We'll have to give up our identity."
01 December 2007
Shapeshifters
The Shapeshifters are coming to Calgary on December 12. I can't wait! Here is their new song "New Day" from the album Do Not Disturb, coming out in Spring 2008.
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